公共养老金保障水平研究:1997—2018年——基于中国城镇职工公共养老金替代率的分析  

Study on Guarantee Level of Public Pension: 1997-2018——An Analysis on Replacement Rate of Public Pension for Urban Employees in China

作　　者：于宁[1,2] Yu Ning

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院城市与人口发展研究所,上海200020 [2]上海社会科学院人口发展与公共政策研究室,上海200020

出　　处：《创新》2020年第6期34-42,共9页Innovation

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“基本养老保险基金支出绩效评价:理论与实证研究”(CJY2008017);上海市浦江人才计划项目“公共养老金改革:支出评价与路径选择”(17PJC077);上海市哲学社会科学规划课题“上海科技型养老地产发展策略研究——基于人口与经济的双重视角”(2018BJB019)。

摘　　要：公共养老金保障水平的高低通常用替代率指标进行衡量,在老龄化社会中,将公共养老金所提供的保障水平控制在适度状态对于维护老年群体生活质量与制度可持续性尤显重要。结合理论推定、国际规范与比较研究可知,平均替代率水平的适度区间应为40%~70%。在此基础上对中国城镇职工公共养老金替代率绩效水平进行的现实评价结论显示,城镇基本养老保险制度所提供的保障程度显著减弱,目前已降至接近国际劳工组织规定的最低水平,主要原因在于养老金增长率滞后于工资增长率,基金保值增值能力有待提高,多支柱养老体系亟待建立。据此,公共养老金保障水平的优化对策应从制度内生因素、基金规模因素、养老体系因素三方面进行探索与思考。Replacement rate is an indicator to measure the guarantee level of public pension.It is important to control the guarantee level of public pension at a moderate range in order to maintain the life quality of elderly people and the sustainability of public pension in an aging society.Based on theoretical reasoning,international practice and comparative studies,a moderate average replacement rate should range from 40%to 70%.On this basis,it makes evaluation on the performance of public pension for urban employees in China.The results show that the guarantee level of public pension for urban employees has significantly decreased close to the minimum level of the International Labor Organization(ILO).The main reason includes slower growth rate of public pension over wage growth,inadequate capacity to secure and increase the pension value and lack of the multi-pillar pension system.Therefore,the countermeasures to improve the guarantee level of public pension should focus on three perspectives:institutional endogenous factor,size of public pension and the pension system.

关 键 词：公共养老金 保障水平 替代率 绩效评价 

分 类 号：F840.61[经济管理—保险]