新交规下路段无信号控制人行横道人车让行率估计方法研究  

Research on Estimation Method of Pedestrians and Vehicles Yielding Rate in Pedestrian Crossing Without Signal Control in Road Section under New Regulations

作　　者：董洁霜[1] 杨城城 王嘉文 DONG Jieshuang;YANG Chengcheng;WANG Jiawen(School of Management,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China)

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《物流科技》2020年第12期77-81,共5页Logistics Sci-Tech

基　　金：上海市青年科技英才扬帆计划项目(19YF1435100)。

摘　　要：新交规的实施使得人车交互机理发生明显改变。首先对人车相遇时影响双方决策的因素进行总结,通过相关性定量分析影响双方决策的因素与让行率的相关性,并通过主成分分析法分析影响车辆与行人决策因素之间的正交性,进而以影响车辆与行人决策的主要因素作为自变量,建立人车交互Logit概率模型。最后基于上海市两处人行横道的视频观测数据验证了该概率模型。结果表明,人车交互Logit模型计算概率与实测概率平均误差分别为6.9%和5.6%,具有较高估计精度,验证了模型的有效性。通过人车交互Logit概率模型,可分别得到人车交互时:(1)车让人同时人让车,(2)车让人,(3)人让车,(4)人不让车同时车不让人四种情形的概率,可为交通管理部门对人行横道处交通安全的改善和通行效率的提高提供理论指导,具有实践价值。The implementation of the new traffic regulations has changed the pedestrian-vehicle interaction mechanism.This article first make a summary on the factors influencing the decision between the two sides,and then through correlation analysis method to analysis the relevance between factors affecting pedestrain and vehicle's decision and yielding rate,through the principal component analysis(PCA)method to analysis the mutual independence between factors affecting people and vehicle's decision,and then regard the factors influencing the decision-making of vehicles and pedestrians as independent variable to establish human-vehicle interaction Logit model.Finally,the Logit model is verified based on video observation data of some crosswalks in Shanghai.The results show that the average error of the calculated probability and the measured probability of the human-vehicle interactive Logit model is 6.9%and 5.6%respectively,which has high estimation accuracy and verifies the effectiveness of the model.Through the human-vehicle interaction Logit model,the probabilities of these four circumstances can be obtained respectively:(1)vehicle yield to pedestrian and simultaneously pedestrian yield to vehicle,(2)vehicle yield to pedestrian,(3)pedestrian yield to vehicle,(4)vehicle doesn't yield to pedestrian and simultaneously pedestrian doesn't yield to vehicle,which can provide theoretical guidance for traffic management department to improve traffic safety and traffic efficiency at crosswalk,and has practical value.

关 键 词：交通工程 人车交互 LOGIT模型 车辆与行人 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]