全国二十一个省、自治区、直辖市毒品滥用人群基数调查评估报告  

An assessment report on the estimate number of drug use in 21 provinces of China

作　　者：贾振军[1] 贾忠伟[2] 鲍彦平[2] 王子云[3] 穆悦[2] 连智[2] 刘志民[2] JIA Zhenjun;JIA Zhongwei;BAO Yanping;WANG Ziyun;MU Yue;LIAN Zhi;LIU Zhimin(People's Public Security University of China,Beijing,100038,China;National Institute on Drug Dependence,Peking University,Beijing,100191,China;Guizhou Medical University y Guiyang,550025,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民公安大学侦查与刑事科学技术学院,北京100038 [2]北京大学中国药物依赖性研究所,北京100191 [3]贵州医科大学,贵阳550025

出　　处：《中国药物依赖性杂志》2020年第5期338-344,共7页Chinese Journal of Drug Dependence

基　　金：十二五国家科技支撑计划课题支持项目(2012BAI01B07);中国人民公安大学校级课题(2019JKF217,2019JY34,2020SZQH17);中国人民公安大学国家安全学北京高精尖学科建设项目(2020GDLW030)。

摘　　要：目的:了解全国各类毒品滥用现状,为毒品滥用防治和禁毒工作科学决策提供技术支持。方法:使用德尔菲法(Delphi technique)对全国21个省、自治区、直辖市的专家进行阿片类毒品和合成毒品滥用情况的流行病学调查评估,数据录入采用EpiData3.1软件,统计分析采用IBM SPSS statistics20 for windowes软件。结果:滥用阿片类毒品的人数是登记在册人数倍数的中位数是2.5,四分位数是2和3;滥用合成毒品的人数与登记在册数量之间倍数的中位数为4,四分位数是3和5。阿片类毒品滥用调查结果显示:8个省的专家集中地认为"阿片类毒品滥用情况严重,新发生滥用人数缓慢增加";10个省的专家集中地认为阿片类毒品"新发生滥用人数无明显增加";2个省的专家集中地认为阿片类毒品"新发生滥用人数有所下降",1个省的专家认为"有海洛因滥用现象,但很少"。合成类毒品滥用调查结果显示:13个省的专家集中地认为"合成毒品滥用情况非常严重,新发生滥用人数迅速增加",其余8个省专家集中地认为"合成毒品滥用情况严重,新发生滥用人数缓慢增加"。结论:以海洛因为代表的阿片类毒品滥用在所调查的21个省均呈不同程度遏制态势,而合成毒品滥用处于"快速流行阶段"或"广泛蔓延阶段",提示进一步加强合成毒品滥用的防控已刻不容缓。Objective:To investigate the current situation of various types of drug use in China and provide advice for the development of current anti-drug policy. Methods:The experts from 21 provinces in China were investigated about the number of drug use by Delphi technique. The data were inputed by EpiData3.1 software and analysed by SPSS statistics 20 for Windows. Results:The multiples of the number of opiate abusers and the number of registered drug users were concentrated between 2 and 3 times, with a median of 2.5 times. The multiples between the number of synthetic drug abusers and the number of registered drug users were concentrated between 3 and 5 times, with the median of 4 times. Experts from 8 provinces focused on "Opioid is the main drug and the number of new drug users in creased slowly";experts from 10 provinces focused on "No significant increase in the number of new drug users";experts from 2 provinces focused on "Decreasing in the number of new drug users" and experts from 1 province on "A few heroin abusers". As to synthetic drug users, experts from 13 provinces focused on "the abuse of synthetic drugs is very serious and the number of new users increased rapidly ", experts from the other 8 provinces focused on "the abuse of synthetic drugs is serious and the number of new users increased slowly". Conclusion:The pattern opiate use was restrained in 21 provinces. But the use of synthetic drugs was in the "rapidly increasing stage", so urgent comprehensive prevention should be taken to control synethetic abuse in China.

关 键 词：德尔菲法 合成毒品 阿片类毒品 药物滥用 

分 类 号：R181.35[医药卫生—流行病学] R749[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]