考虑认知不确定度和评估贴近度的AHP赋权法  

AHP Weighting Approach in Terms of Cognitive Uncertainty and Assessment Closeness

作　　者：韦可佳 耿俊豹[1] 徐孙庆 WEI Ke-jia;GENG Jun-bao;XU Sun-qing(College of Engineering,Naval University of Engineering.Wuhan 430033,China;Unit 92493 Detachment 60 of PLA,Huludao 125000,China)

机构地区：[1]海军工程大学动力工程学院,武汉430033 [2]解放军92493部队60分队,辽宁葫芦岛125000

出　　处：《火力与指挥控制》2020年第10期23-27,共5页Fire Control & Command Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(51179196);海军工程大学自然科学基金资助项目(K425517K156)。

摘　　要：针对传统AHP中可能出现的判断矩阵不满足一致性要求,以及专家主观性认知不足的问题,结合群决策理论,提出了一种考虑认知不确定度和评估贴近度的群决策AHP赋权法。基于评估贴近度分配专家权重;提出专家认知不确定度的概念,对各判断矩阵进行了合理修正;最后,采用循环调节的方式加权得出专家群体的判断矩阵。案例分析表明,该方法可以根据评估贴近度与认知不确定度合理地分配专家权重并修正判断矩阵,在一定程度上减小了不满足一致性要求所造成的影响,使得群决策AHP方法更加简洁、评估结果更加合理,在工程实践中值得推广应用。Aiming at the problem that the judgment matrix may not meet the consistency requirement and that there is lack of subjective cognition of the experts in the traditional AHP,AHP weighting approach of group decision-making is put forward that takes into account the cognitive uncertainty and the assessment closeness combined with group decision theory.Firstly,the expert weight is allocated based on the evaluation of closeness・Secondly,the concept of expert cognitive uncertainty is proposed and the judgment matrix is corrected in a proper way.Finally,the judgment matrix of the expert group is weighted by means of cyclic adjustment.The case analysis shows that the approach can allocate expert weights appropriately and correct the judgment matrix according to the evaluation of closeness and cognitive uncertainty,which reduces the impacts due to inconsistency with the requirements to a certain degree,and makes the AHP approach of group decision more concise,and makes evaluation results more reasonable worthy of promotion and application in engineering practice.

关 键 词：层次分析法(AHP) 群体决策 权重 评估贴近度 认知不确定度 

分 类 号：N945.25[自然科学总论—系统科学]