基于最小二乘法拟合的陇南市旅游人数预测研究  

Research on Forecasting the Number of Tourists of Longnan City Based on Least Squares Fitting

作　　者：李娟[1] 席浩元 LI Juan;XI Hao-yuan(Department of Mathematics,Longnan Teachers College,Chengxian 742500,Gansu,China)

机构地区：[1]陇南师范高等专科学校数学系,甘肃成县742500

出　　处：《兰州文理学院学报（自然科学版）》2020年第6期17-20,共4页Journal of Lanzhou University of Arts and Science(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：陇南市2019年度哲学社会科学研究项目(19LSKL10);陇南师范高等专科学校2018年度教学改革项目(JXGG201810)。

摘　　要：准确预测陇南市旅游人数,可以引导旅游市场资源的合理配置.以《陇南市国民经济和社会发展统计公报》公布的旅游人口数据为依据,利用最小二乘法拟合建立了Logistic回归模型,计算结果显示拟合数据与统计值吻合较好,平均误差不超过5%.进而对陇南市未来5年的旅游人口数进行了预测,预测结果显示陇南市未来旅游人口呈现不断增长趋势.Accurately predicting the number of tourists could guide the reasonable allocation of tourism market resources in Longnan City.Based on the tourism population data published in the Statistical Bulletin of Longnan City National Economic and Social Development,a Logistic regression model was established using the least squares method to calculate the results which showed that the fitted data was in good agreement with the statistical value,and the average error did not exceed 5%.Furthermore,the number of tourists of Longnan City in the next 5 years was predicted,which showed that the future number of tourists of Longnan City would continue to increase.

关 键 词：最小二乘法 LOGISTIC回归模型 旅游人数 预测 

分 类 号：O175.7[理学—数学]