环境污染与城市发展质量——基于面板联立方程模型的实证分析  

Environmental Pollution and Urban Development Quality——An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Simultaneous Equation Model

作　　者：霍露萍 张燕[2] HUO Lu-ping;ZHANG Yan(School of Urban Economics and Public Administration,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070;School of Urban and Regional Science/Institute of F'inance and Economics,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学城市经济与公共管理学院,北京100070 [2]上海财经大学城市与区域科学学院/财经研究所,上海200433

出　　处：《软科学》2020年第11期27-32,45,共7页Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(14BJL061)。

摘　　要：提出环境污染与城市发展之间的非线性关系和影响机制的3个假设,采用1998~2016年中国227个地级及以上城市的数据来验证PM2.5浓度对城市发展质量的影响关系。研究结果表明:PM2.5浓度对城市发展具有显著正向影响,它们之间的非线性关系表现为“〜”型曲线,而城市发展对环境污染具有显著正向单调线性关系,表明我国城市发展依然处于加剧环境污染阶段,采用替代指标和两种工具变量进行的稳健性检验强化了这一结论。异质性分析发现东部地区的PM2.5浓度与城市发展之间具有显著的“倒U”型关系,而中部地区为“U”型曲线、西部地区为正向单调线性曲线、东北地区为“…”型曲线关系,表明地理位置和资源禀赋等因素使环境污染对不同地区城市发展具有异质性影响关系。This paper presents a simple theoretic analysis and propose three hypotheses about the non-linear relationship and possible mechanism between environmental pollution and city development.And then,it studies the effect of PM2.5 concentrations(i.e.,environmental pollution)on urban development quality by a large database of Chinese 227 cities from 1998 to 2016.Result shows that PM2.5 concentrations have a significant ffct on urban development quality and the non-linear relationship between them is characterized as"-shape curve,while urban development has a significant positive linear relationship on environmental pollution which indicates that Chinas urbanization process is still exacerbating environmental pollution.The robustness tests through using altermative indicator and applying two instruments as a proxy for environmental pollution also obtain consistent result.It can be seen that the relationship between PM2.5 concentrations and urban development quality in eastern region is characterized as inverted U-shape curve,the central region has a U-shape curve,the westerm region has a positive monotone linear curve,while the northeast region is a r-shape curve.It shows that factors such as geographical location and resource endowment make environmental pollution have a heterogeneous impact on the development of different cities.

关 键 词：环境污染 城市发展质量 PM2.5浓度 联立方程模型 

分 类 号：F299.2[经济管理—国民经济]