中国粮食产需平衡的时空格局演变分析--基于粮食用途和省域层面的视角  

The spatio-temporal evolution of China’s grain production and demand balance:From the perspectives of grain use and provincial level

作　　者：孟召娣 李国祥[2] MENG Zhao-di;LI Guo-xiang(University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China;Rural Development Institute,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学,北京102488 [2]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2020年第6期928-936,共9页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(14ZDA041);国家自然科学基金青年项目(71503252)。

摘　　要：我国粮食安全形势总体良好,但区域性矛盾问题不容忽视,优化粮食安全区域布局有利于增强粮食安全风险防范能力。文章从粮食用途角度,估算2013-2018年31省市的粮食需求量,将粮食产需划分为6个不同等级,分析我国粮食产需平衡的时空演变规律,测算了空间自相关性。结果显示:1)2013-2018年,我国粮食高产区增产而低产区减产,粮食生产重心向高产区集中,粮食生产的省域差距持续增加。2)口粮和饲料用粮是粮食总需求结构中重要的两个部分;间接用粮和粮食总需求量变动呈现“北减南增”、“东减西增”的空间变动。3)山东、四川和辽宁虽为粮食主产区,但也表现为高缺粮。有充足的粮食可输出的省份为黑龙江、吉林、内蒙古、河南、安徽、新疆和甘肃。2013-2018年,多数省市内的粮食产需不平衡现象得到了改善,省级层面粮食安全水平提高。4)我国粮食产需呈现空间正相关,具有集聚状态,且口粮需产差的空间集聚性更强、更稳定。高余粮区集中在黑龙江、内蒙古、新疆等偏北区域,而高缺粮区集中在东南沿海。基于上述分析,文章得出平衡好口粮需求和间接粮食需求之间、粮食输入地和输出地之间的关系;完善粮食流通体系,加强粮食供应链管理的启示。China’s grain security situation has held up fairly well,but regional contradictions cannot be ignored.Optimizing the regional layout of grain security is conducive to enhancing the ability to prevent grain security risks.From the perspective of grain usage,this paper estimates the grain demand of 31 provinces and cities from 2013 to 2018,divides grain production and demand into 6 different levels,analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution of China’s grain production and demand balance,and calculates the spatial autocorrelation.Results show that:1)From 2013 to 2018,China’s high-yield areas increased production while low-yield areas reduced production.Food production focused on high-yield regions,and the provincial gap in grain production continued to grow;2)Food and feed grains are two essential parts of the total grain demand structure.The indirect grain consumption and total grain demand changes show a spatial shift of“decreasing in the north and increasing in the south”and“decreasing in the East and increasing in the West”;3)Although Shandong,Sichuan and Liaoning are the main grain-producing areas,they also show high grain shortages.The provinces with sufficient grain to export are Heilongjiang,Jilin,Inner Mongolia,Henan,Anhui,Xinjiang and Gansu.From 2013 to 2018,the imbalances between grain production and demand in most provinces and cities have been getting better,and the level of grain security at the provincial level has been improved;And 4)China’s grain production and demand show a positive spatial correlation,with a state of agglomeration.Moreover,the spatial agglomeration of poor grain demand and production is more robust and more stable.High surplus grain areas are concentrated in northern regions such as Heilongjiang,Inner Mongolia,and Xinjiang while high grain deficit areas are located in the southeast coast.Based on the above analysis,the paper draws some policy implications:to balance the relationship between direct food demand and indirect food demand,and between grain surplus and

关 键 词：粮食用途 粮食产需平衡 空间自相关 粮食安全 空间集聚 

分 类 号：F329.9[经济管理—产业经济]