CPTPP对全球制造业分工格局的影响——基于总值和增加值贸易双重视角  

The Impact of CPTPP on the Division Structure of the World Manufacturing Industry:Based on Gross Value Trade and Trade in Value-added

作　　者：杜运苏[1] 刘艳平 金山[2] DU Yun-su;LIU Yan-ping;JIN Shan

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学国际经贸学院 [2]广东金融学院

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2020年第11期67-81,共15页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目(20BJY099);广州市哲学社科规划智库项目(2017GZZK36);教育部规划基金项目(20YJC790036)。

摘　　要：文章利用最新版GTAP模型从总值贸易和增加值贸易两个角度模拟分析了CPTPP对全球制造业分工格局的影响。结果显示:CPTPP生效初期对全球制造业分工格局影响较小,但随着关税削减力度加大和贸易便利化程度提高,其影响会越来越大;中国加入CPTPP不仅可以提高"中国制造"在全球制造业分工格局中的地位,还可以扩大该协定的贸易创造效应,使全球制造业出口实现一定幅度增长;在中国不加入的情况下,CPTPP不仅会影响"中国制造"出口,减少世界市场占有率,而且会降低中国制造业的全球价值链地位指数,其中对计算机及电子产品行业的负面冲击尤为显著。This paper uses the latest version of GTAP model to simulate and analyze the impact of CPTPP on the division structure of the world manufacturing industry from the perspectives of gross value trade and trade in value-added.The results show that the effect of CPTPP is relatively small at the beginning,but with the intensification of tariff reduction and the improvement of trade facilitation,its impact will spread further.China’s accession to CPTPP could not only improve the position of"Made in China"in the division structure of the world manufacturing industry,but also expand the trade creation effect of this agreement,so that the world manufacturing export can achieve a certain growth.Without China’s accession,CPTPP will not only affect the export of"Made in China"and reduce the world market share,but also lead to the decline of GVC position index of China’s manufacturing industry.The negative impact on the computer and electronic products industry is particularly significant.

关 键 词：CPTPP GTAP模型 制造业 增加值贸易 

分 类 号：F114[经济管理—国际贸易]