PPP项目物有所值评价系统动力学模型应用  

Application of System Dynamics Model for VFM Evaluation of PPP Project

作　　者：赵振宇[1] 苑曙光 戴同 包格日乐图 ZHAO Zhenyu;YUAN Shuguang;DAI Tong;BAO Geriletu(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;School of Construction Engineering Management,Inner Mongilia Technical College of Construction,Hohhot 010070,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206 [2]内蒙古建筑职业技术学院工程管理学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010070

出　　处：《华侨大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第6期765-771,共7页Journal of Huaqiao University(Natural Science)

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金资助项目(8192043)。

摘　　要：为了能动态分析项目全寿命周期内物有所值(VFM)量值及相关变量的变化趋势,根据社会资本和政府合作(PPP)项目全寿命周期成本-收益构成要素间的因果关系,构建PPP项目物有所值评价系统动力学模型.以某新建工业废渣处理PPP项目为案例,对项目的物有所值量值进行试算,并对生产负荷、折现率、单价进行敏感性分析.结果表明:所建模型可有效用于确定PPP项目合理单价范围、特许经营合理期限等关键参数,能够为PPP项目科学决策提供支持.In order to dynamically analyze the dynamic change trend of value for money(VFM)and its related variables in the whole life cycle of a public-private-partnership(PPP)project,according to the causal relationship between the cost and proposed benefit components of PPP project,a system dynamic model of VFM evaluation for PPP project is constructed.Taking a new PPP project of industrial waste disposal as an example,the VFM of the project is calculated,and the sensitivity of production load,discount rate and unit price are analyzed.The results show that the model can be used effectively to determine the suitable unit price range,reasonable franchise period and other key parameters of PPP projects,and can provide the support for scientific decision-making of PPP projects.

关 键 词：PPP项目 物有所值 定量评价 系统动力学 废渣处理 

分 类 号：X705[环境科学与工程—环境工程] N941.3[自然科学总论—系统科学]