基于降雨规律的流域水库群消落调度函数研究  

Study on the Drawdown Dispatch Function of Basin Reservoir Group Based on the Regularity of Rainfall

作　　者：王二朋 赵云发[1,2] 李鹏[1,2] 曹辉[1,2] 张俊[1,2] WANG Erpeng;ZHAO Yunfa;LI Peng;CAO Hui;ZHANG Jun(Three Gorges Cascade Dispatch&Communication Center of China Yangtze Power Co.,Ltd.,Yichang 443433,Hubei,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Yangtze River and Hydropower Science,China Yangtze Power Co.,Ltd.,Yichang 443000,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]中国长江电力股份有限公司三峡水利枢纽梯级调度通信中心,湖北宜昌443433 [2]中国长江电力股份有限公司智慧长江与水电科学湖北省重点实验室,湖北宜昌443000

出　　处：《水力发电》2020年第12期99-103,共5页Water Power

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(2013CB036406);国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0402210);国家重点研发计划(2019YFC0409000)。

摘　　要：为了提高流域水库群整体发电效益,避免汛前弃水,亟需对联合消落调度函数进行研究,用于指导流域内各水库有序消落。建立了简化的联合消落模型,引进了子流域雨季开始时间和首场强降雨时间两个大尺度相关因子,结合长系列优化结果,采用逐步回归法构建以水位为决策变量的大流域水库群联合消落函数。以长江上游水库群为研究对象,选择1961年~2018年实测旬径流和日面雨量系列进行拟合和检验。水库群联合消落模型近似最优解和消落调度函数结果均表明长江上游流域水库群消落期优化平均消落次序为嘉陵江、乌江、泯沱江、雅砻江、金沙江下游、三峡、金沙江中游,全流域平均发电量增加2%左右,各子流域水库群也有不同程度增加。In order to improve the overall generation benefit of reservoir group in a basin and avoid water abandonment before flood season,it is necessary to study the joint drawdown dispatch function to guide the orderly drawdown of each reservoir in the basin.A simplified joint drawdown model is established,and two large-scale related factors of the beginning time of rainy season and the first heavy rainfall time of sub-watershed are introduced into the model.Combined with the long series of optimization results,the stepwise regression method is used to construct the joint drawdown function of reservoir group by taking the water level as decision variable.Taking the reservoir group in the upper reaches of Yangtze River as the research object,the measured ten-day runoff and daily areal rainfall series from 1961 to 2018 are selected for fitting and testing.The approximate optimal solution of the joint drawdown model and the results of drawdown dispatch function both show that the optimal drawdown order of the reservoirs in the upper reaches of Yangtze River is Jialing River,Wujiang River,Mintuo River,Yalong River,the lower reaches of Jinsha River,the Three Gorges and the middle reaches of Jinsha River.The average power generation of the whole basin is increased by about 2%,and the reservoir groups in each sub-basin are also increased in various degree.

关 键 词：水库调度 水库群 消落调度函数 流域 降雨规律 

分 类 号：TV697.12[水利工程—水利水电工程]