金融素养对地震灾后农房重建信贷违约的影响——基于雅安4.20地震的实证研究  

The Influence of Financial Literacy on Credit Default of Rural House Reconstruction After Earthquake——An Empirical Study Based on the 4.20 Earthquake in Ya'an

作　　者：李凤至 杨明东 肖诗顺 LI Feng-zhi;YANG Ming-dong;XIAO Shi-shun

机构地区：[1]四川农业大学经济学院 [2]三台农村商业银行

出　　处：《农村金融研究》2020年第11期38-48,共11页Rural Finance Research

摘　　要：研究地震后农房重建贷款的回收效果,有效识别影响农房重建信贷违约风险的因素,可为今后同类型灾后重建贷款及其管理提供政策参考。论文利用对选定的农村商业银行和农村信用社调查获取的机构数据及314户农户调查数据,通过Probit模型检验金融素养对重建贷款违约的影响。研究发现:第一,农房重建贷款的特殊性因素中,"农业生产损失、灾后产业发展水平、是否有邻里借贷、家庭年收入、重建贷款期限、对重建农房的满意程度和重建贷款农户朋友圈的信用氛围"等因素对农户是否发生信贷违约有影响;第二,农户的金融素养越高,越不易发生信贷违约,且是所有显著变量中影响最大的变量。最后得出结论,可形成"联保小组(以金融素养为划分标准)+还款奖励"的模式;注重政策的长效机制,防止灾后再次发生重大损失;严把重建农房质量关,提高重建农户满意度。To study the recovery effect of rural housing reconstruction loans and effectively identify the factors affecting the credit default risk of rural housing reconstruction is conducive to continuously improve the national disaster relief support policies and bank credit support policies,so as to provide policy reference for the same type of post-disaster reconstruction loans and their management in the future.In this paper,institutional data and survey data of 314 households from selected rural commercial banks and rural credit cooperatives are obtained,and the impact of financial literacy on loan defaults for reconstruction is tested through Probit model.The research finds that among the special factors of the loan for the reconstruction of rural houses,loss of agricultural production,industrial development level after the disaster,whether there is neighborhood loan,annual household income,the term of the loan for reconstruction,the degree of satisfaction for the reconstruction of rural houses,and the credit atmosphere in the circle of friends of farmers with the reconstruction loans have an impact on the occurrence of credit default by farmers.At the same time,the higher the financial literacy of farmers,the less likely they are to have credit default,which is the most influential variable among all the significant variables.Finally,the following suggestions are proposed in this paper:the model of"COguarantee group(based on financial literacy)+repayment incentive"can be formed;Pay attention to the long-term mechanism of the policy to prevent the recurrence of heavy losses after the disaster;Strictly control the quality of the reconstruction of rural houses and improve the satisfaction of the reconstruction of farmers.

关 键 词：地震灾后农房重建贷款 金融素养 信贷违约 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学] F301.3[天文地球—固体地球物理学] F832.4[天文地球—地球物理学]