煤炭价格变化影响因素及预测的研究  

Research on Influencing Factors and Forecasting of Coal Price Change

作　　者：母丽华[1] 于齐 常帅 MU Li-hua;YU Qi;CHANG Shuai(Heilongjiang University of Science and Technology,Harbin 150027,China)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江科技大学,哈尔滨150027

出　　处：《煤炭技术》2020年第11期196-198,共3页Coal Technology

基　　金：2016年度哈尔滨市科技创新人才专项资金项目-优秀学科带头人项目(2016RAXXJ028)。

摘　　要：在我国目前的能源结构中,煤炭仍然在火力发电、机车推进以及锅炉燃烧等领域广泛应用,特别是煤炭价格直接反映着煤炭供需关系的变化,并调节供需双方的资源配置和生产经营活动。通过对煤炭价格变化影响因素的分析,利用多元线性回归模型确定了影响因素的排序,根据决策变量的约束条件,建立了煤炭价格日、月预测模型,对相关管理部门制定经济政策和企业进行资源配置及生产经营决策起到参考作用。The current energy structure in China, it is still widely used in the thermal power, engine propulsion and combustion boiler, and other fields. Furthermore, the coal price directly reflects the change of coal supply and demand, and adjusts the resource allocation and production and operation activities of the supply and demand sides. Through the analysis of the affecting factors on coal price change, using multiple linear regression model to determine the influence factors of sorting, the thesis established daily and monthly forecast model of coal price according to the decision variables constraints. The thesis could be a reference for related management department to make economic policy and for enterprise to allocate resources and make business operation decision.

关 键 词：煤炭价格 多元回归预测模型 假设检验模型 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济] F764.1