气候变化下毛榛在中国的潜在适生区预测  

Prediction of potential distribution area of Corylus mandshurica in China under climate change

作　　者：王绮 樊保国[1] 赵光华 WANG Qi;FAN Bao-guo;ZHAO Guang-hua(College of life Sciences,Shanxi Normal Uriversisy,Lanfen 041004,Shanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]山西师范大学生命科学学院,山西临汾041004

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2020年第11期3774-3784,共11页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：山西省科学技术发展计划项目(20140311017-7)资助。

摘　　要：气候变化影响着植物物种的地理分布,研究气候变化对物种地理分布格局的影响对物种的保护和合理利用具有重要意义。本研究通过ENMeval数据包调整特征组合和调控倍率参数来优化MaxEnt模型,利用221条毛榛有效分布点数据和16个环境因子,模拟预测毛榛在当前气候和未来(2050s、2070s)气候条件下的潜在分布区,并分析影响毛榛地理分布的主导环境因子。结果表明:当特征组合为LQPH、调控倍率为1.5时,模型复杂度和过拟合程度较低,预测结果准确性较高。当前气候条件下,毛榛高度适生区主要集中于长白山、太行山、秦巴山区及甘肃南部等地区;未来不同气候情景下,陕西中北部、中国西南地区、甘肃南部等地区毛榛的适生区逐渐减少,内蒙古东部与黑龙江等地区开始出现较多的毛榛高度适生区,毛榛适生区的质心有向东北方向迁移的趋势;影响毛榛地理分布的主导环境因子为年降水量、最干季均温、海拔和年均温,累计贡献率达78.8%,其适宜范围分别为430~970 mm、-21~3℃、40~2800 m和0.8~13℃。Climate change influences plant geographic distribution. Studies on the influence of climate change on species geographic distribution is of great significance for protection and proper utilization of species. In this study,we adjusted multi-feature combination and magnification parameters through ENMeval packet to optimize MaxEnt model. With 221 effective distribution data of Corylus mandshurica and 16 environmental factors,we simulated and predicted its potential distribution areas under current and future climate(2050 s and 2070 s),and analyzed dominant environmental factors affecting its geographic distribution. The results showed that when feature combination was LQPH and regularization multiplier was 1.5,both the complexity and overfitting of the model were low and prediction accuracy was good. Under the present climate scenario,suitable distribution zones of C. mandshurica were located in Changbai Mountain,Taihang Mountain,Qin-ba Mountainous Area,and south of Gansu Province. Under future climate scenario,the suitable zones of C. mandshurica,such as central and northern Shaanxi,southwest China and southern Gansu,will progressively decline,whereas more suitable zones will move to eastern Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang. The center of suitable zones tended to move towards northeast.Dominant environmental factors affecting the geographic distribution of C. mandshurica were annual precipitation,mean temperature of driest quarter,elevation and annual mean temperature,with a cumulative contribution rate of 78. 8%,and their suitable condition ranges were430-970 mm,-21 to 3 ℃,40-2800 m and 0.8-13 ℃,respectively.

关 键 词：毛榛 MaxEnt模型 气候变化 潜在适生区 主导环境因子 

分 类 号：Q948.11[生物学—植物学]