经济增速放缓、稳增长与供地结构变动  

Study on Economic Downturn, Stable Growth and the Structure Change of Land Supply Pattern

作　　者：陈金至 刘晓光 范志勇[3] Chen Jinzhi;Liu Xiaoguang;Fan Zhiyong(School of Government Audit,Nanjing Audit University;National Academy of Development and Strategy,Renmin University of China;School of Economics,Renmin University of China)

机构地区：[1]南京审计大学政府审计学院 [2]中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院 [3]中国人民大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2020年第11期13-23,共11页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：中国人民大学重大规划项目“长期视角下的世界经济”(17XNLG05)资助。

摘　　要：随着经济增速的放缓,中国的土地市场出现了基建用地大幅扩张和工业用地、商住用地持续紧缩的结构性变动,由此引发了政府债务攀升和房价上涨等问题。本文据此构建了一个包含各类土地供给的DSGE模型,嵌入了地方政府土地出让和土地抵押行为,对上述现象进行了解释。研究表明,企业的拿地意愿随着经济增速放缓而下降。出于稳增长的目的,地方政府开始大规模供给基建用地。为了给大幅扩张的基建融资,地方政府不得不紧缩商住用地供给,以获得较高的垄断地价和更多的土地抵押贷款。进一步地,本文认为,地方政府稳增长的意愿越强、对基建越偏好、对土地抵押贷款越依赖,越会造成供地结构的失衡。此外,征收财产税虽未改变地方政府稳增长的目标,但部分缓解了供地结构失衡的问题。With the economic downturn since the financial crisis, China's land supply market has witnessed a drastic structural change, with tremendous expansion of infrastructure land and continuous contraction of industrial land and commercial/residential land, which has also led to the rise of government debt and housing prices. Based on this, this paper constructs a DSGE model embedding different types of land supply and local government land mortgage behavior. Research shows that: in order to cope with the economic downturn, the local government has started a stable growth pattern depending on large-scale supply of infrastructure land. In order to finance the huge expansion of infrastructure, the government has to tighten the supply of commercial/residential land, thus obtaining higher monopoly land prices and more land mortgage loans. Further research finds that the more stable growth the local government desires and the stronger the preference for infrastructure, the more volatile the land supply structure will be. In addition, the reserve land mortgage mechanism also strengthens the government's impulse to tighten the supply of commercial/residential land to push up land prices, because the rise of land price caused by supply contraction help the government relax its credit constraints. Finally, the discussion of property tax indicates that although property tax does not change government's goal of stable growth, it can partly alleviate the imbalance of land supply structure. According to our research, we put forward a series of policy suggestions. Firstly, the government should pay more attention to the people's livelihood, and increase the land supply to curb the excessive rise of housing price. Secondly, the whole society should accelerate the transformation of economic structure and industrial upgrading, and reduce its dependence on land. Thirdly, the local government should actively resolve the risks brought by over-reliance on“land financialization”.

关 键 词：经济增速放缓 稳增长 供地结构 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]