小麦印度腥黑穗病菌对我国小麦产业造成的潜在经济损失评估  

Assessment of potential economic loss of China wheat industry caused by Tilletia indica Mitra

作　　者：汪莹 卢小雨 王颖 高瑞芳 向才玉 徐浪 章桂明 黄河清 Wang Ying;Lu Xiaoyu;Wang Ying;Gao Ruifang;Xiang Caiyu;Xu Lang;Zhang Guiming;Huang Heqing(Shenzhen Customs District,Shenzhen 518045,China;Shenzhen Scientific Academy of Inspection and Quarantine)

机构地区：[1]深圳海关,广东深圳518045 [2]深圳市检验检疫科学研究院

出　　处：《植物检疫》2020年第6期45-49,共5页Plant Quarantine

基　　金：国家科技支撑项目(2015BAD08B01)。

摘　　要：本文在小麦市场价格、小麦印度腥黑穗病菌(Tilletia indica Mitra)为害小麦的销毁处理价格、防治费用等相关数据的基础上,构建潜在经济损失评估模型,利用@RISK软件及随机模拟的方法,预测了小麦印度腥黑穗病菌可能给我国小麦产业带来的经济损失。在不防治场景下的潜在经济损失90%置信区间为562~1 456亿元,防治场景下的潜在经济损失90%置信区间为39.9~103.8亿元,投入防治后可挽回的经济损失90%置信区间为521~1 353亿元,建议加强检疫措施严防小麦印度腥黑穗病菌传入。Basing on relevant data of Tilletia indica Mitra,including the market price of wheat,the destroy price of the infected wheat and the cost of its prevention in field,this study established a potential economic loss assessment model for T. indica and used @RISK to evaluate the potential economic loss in China. Without control of T. indica,the wheat industry was predicted to lose 56.2-145.6 billion RMB(90% confidence). Under effective control,the wheat industry would lose 3.99-10.38 billion RMB(90%confidence),with a saving of 52.1-135.3 billion RMB(90% confidence). Quarantine measures should be enhanced in order to prevent its invasion.

关 键 词：小麦印度腥黑穗病菌 小麦 潜在经济损失 @RISK 

分 类 号：S41[农业科学—植物保护]