人口转变、低生育率与人口发展战略思考——兼评马尔萨斯人口思想  

Strategic Thinking on Population Transformation, Low Fertility Rate and Population Development: A Concurrent Comment on Malthusian Population Thought

作　　者：周长洪 ZHOU Changhong(School of Society and Population,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京邮电大学社会与人口学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《人口与社会》2020年第6期1-14,共14页Population and Society

基　　金：江苏省人口学会开放基金资助“新时期江苏人口工作转型及其体制机制创新研究”(JSPA2019006)。

摘　　要：在梳理人口学领域重要的宏观人口理论——马尔萨斯人口论、传统人口转变理论以及第二次人口转变理论的基础上,结合近半个多世纪以来世界范围内出现的新人口现象——长期持续低生育率现象,讨论现代人口变动的基本规律及其对认识当今中国人口问题的借鉴意义,纠正对我国未来人口发展的几个错误认识,提出关于人口发展战略的一些建议,即在充分尊重人口发展规律的基础上,结合我国人口实际情况,以“问题”为导向,以“平稳发展”为目标制定推动经济社会发展的人口政策。Based on sorting out the important macro population theories in the field of demography—Malthusian theory,traditional demographic transition theory and the second demographic transition theory,and considering the emergence of new demographic phenomena worldwide over the last half century—lasting low fertility rates,the paper discusses the basic law of modern population change and its referential significance to the understanding of current population problems in China,and corrects several misconceptions about China's future population development,and offers some suggestions on population development strategies,i.e.on the basis of fully respecting the law of population development and taking into account the actual situation of China's population,we should formulate a population policy that promotes economic and social development and is problem-oriented and aims at steady development.

关 键 词：马尔萨斯人口论 人口控制 人口转变理论 低生育率 第二次人口转变 人口发展战略 

分 类 号：C923[社会学—人口学]