基于MCR与CA的城市开发边界融合划定研究——以徐州市为例  

Study on Fusion Demarcation of Urban Development Boundary Based on MCR and CA Model:A Case Study of Xuzhou City

作　　者：刘希朝 李效顺[1,2] 魏旭晨 蒋冬梅[1,2] 李帆[1,2] 沈春竹 LIU Xizhao;LI Xiaoshun;WEI Xuchen;JIANG Dongmei;LI Fan;SHEN Chunzhu(Research Center for Transition Development and Rural Revitalization of Resource-based Cities in China,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China;Research Base of Jiangsu Land Resource Think Tank in China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China;Key Laboratory of Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection,Ministry of Natural Resources,Nanjing 210095,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学中国资源型城市转型发展与乡村振兴研究中心,江苏徐州221116 [2]江苏自然资源智库中国矿业大学研究基地,江苏徐州221116 [3]自然资源部海岸带开发与保护重点实验室,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2020年第10期8-17,共10页China Land Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71704177,71874192);江苏省社科优青、重点基金项目(19GLA006);自然资源部海岸带开发与保护重点实验室开放基金(2019CZEPK10)。

摘　　要：研究目的:探索基于MCR和CA模型的城市开发边界划定技术方法体系,为区域国土空间规划提供参考。研究方法:夜间灯光与遥感指数融合法、MCR模型、CA-Markov模型。研究结果:(1)2005年、2010年和2015年徐州市建成区规模分别为213.15 km^2、322.18 km^2和443.25 km^2,并呈现向东部和东南方向扩张的特征。(2)基于MCR模型从现实供给视角划定的徐州市2020年、2025年和2030年城市开发边界规模分别为544.54 km^2、635.35 km^2和716.63 km^2;基于CA-Markov模型从理想需求视角划定的徐州市2020年、2025年和2030年城市开发边界规模分别为555.26 km^2、655.94 km^2和736.23 km^2。(3)本文权衡推荐两种方法的融合结果,即规模为529.69 km^2、589.36 km^2和698.98 km^2的空间范围作为2020年、2025年和2030年徐州市城市开发边界。研究结论:根据供需平衡原理,从现实供给和理想需求不同视角构建MCR模型与CA模型融合划定的城市开发边界,符合以徐州市为代表的成长发育型城市空间扩张的规律,能够科学优化城市开发格局,有效解决城市发展与农地保护矛盾,为规划实践提供方法参考和决策依据。The purposes of this paper are to explore the technical method system of urban development boundary demarcation based on MCR and CA models,and to provide quantitative reference and decision-making basis for territorial space planning.The research methods include fusion method of night light and remote sensing index,MCR model and CA-Markov model.The research results show that 1)the scale of Xuzhou City’s built-up areas in 2005,2010,and 2015 was 213.15 km^2,322.18 km^2 and 443.25 km^2,respectively,and showed the characteristics of expansion to the east and southeast.2)Based on the MCR model,the scale of urban development boundary of Xuzhou City in 2020,2025 and 2030 is 544.54 km^2,635.35 km^2 and 716.63 km^2,respectively from the perspective of actual supply.Based on the CA-Markov model,the scale of urban development boundary of Xuzhou City in 2020,2025 and 2030 is 555.26 km^2,655.94 km^2 and 736.23 km^2,respectively from the perspective of ideal demand.3)This study comprehensively recommends the fusion result of the two methods,that is,the spatial scope of 529.69 km^2,589.36 km^2 and 698.98 km^2 as the urban development boundary of Xuzhou City in 2020,2025 and 2030.In conclusion,according to the principle of supply and demand balance,constructing the urban development boundary defined by the integration of the MCR model and the CA model from different perspectives of actual supply and ideal demand can scientifically optimize the urban development pattern,effectively solve the contradiction between urban development and farmland protection,and provide methodological reference and decisionmaking basis for planning practice.

关 键 词：城市现状边界 城市开发边界 MCR模型 CA-Markov模型 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]