心血管病风险预测模型发展及关于构建急性ST段抬高型心肌梗死病证结合风险预测模型的设想  

Development of Risk Prediction Model of Ischemic Cardiovascular Disease and Establishment of Combination of Syndrome and Disease Risk Predicting Model for ST-segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

作　　者：庞琳琳[1,2] 张会永[2] 张哲[2] 王英[1] 王钰[1] 徐宁阳[1] 杨关林[1] PANG Linlin;ZHANG Huiyong;ZHANG Zhe;WANG Ying;WANG Yu;XU Ningyang;YANG Guanlin(Liaoning University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Shenyang 110847,Liaoning,China;Affiliated Hospital of Liaoning University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Shenyang 110032,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁中医药大学,辽宁沈阳110847 [2]辽宁中医药大学附属医院,辽宁沈阳110032

出　　处：《中华中医药学刊》2020年第11期85-89,共5页Chinese Archives of Traditional Chinese Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(81904069,81603513);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB531704);辽宁省自然科学基金(201602496);辽宁中医药大学中医脏象理论及应用国家教育部重点实验室开放基金(zyzx1903,zyzx1505)。

摘　　要：急性ST段抬高型心肌梗死(ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction,STEMI)发病率和病死率近来连年攀升,给患者和社会造成了极大的压力。自上世纪50年代起,各国研究者越来越多地致力于心血管病风险预测模型的研究,适合不同人群、针对特定指标的心血管病预测模型应运而生,建模方法不断丰富。中医药治疗心血管病有其特有的优势,充分结合现代医学疾病发病因素和中医证候研究,选定不稳定型心绞痛患者为目标人群,构建STEMI病证结合风险预测模型,进而筛选危险因素、确定危险人群、探索中医证候演变规律,将为临床针对性的中西医预防和早期干预提供科学依据。就心血管病风险预测模型发展情况及STEMI病证结合风险预测模型构建研究的危险人群、发病相关危险因素和中医证候临床研究、模型构建等进行系统论述。The morbidity and mortality of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction(STEMI) are increasing year by year,which places a heavy burden on patients and society. Since the 1950 s, researchers in different countries have been increasingly engaged in the study of cardiovascular disease risk prediction. Cardiovascular disease prediction models suitable for different groups and specific indicators have emerged since then, and the modeling methods have been constantly enriched. Traditional Chinese medicine has its unique advantages in the treatment of cardiovascular diseases. Combining the pathogenic factors of diseases in western medicine with the study of TCM syndromes, an STEMI risk prediction model for patients with unstable angina pectoris was constructed to screen risk factors, identify high-risk groupsand explore the law of TCM syndrome evolution. It would provide scientific basis for clinical prevention and early intervention of Chinese and western medicine for STEMI. In this paper, the development of cardiovascular disease risk prediction model and the target population, pathogenesis related factors, clinical investigation of TCM syndromes and model construction of combination of syndrome and disease risk predicting model for STEMI were systematically discussed.

关 键 词：急性ST段抬高型心肌梗死 病证结合 数学模型 风险预测 危险因素 中医证素 

分 类 号：R259.422.2[医药卫生—中西医结合]