南海台风模式TRAMS 3.0的技术更新和评估结果  

Updates in TRAMS 3.0 Model Version and Its Verification on Typhoon Forecast

作　　者：徐道生[1] 陈子通[1] 张艳霞[1] 戴光丰[1] 钟水新[1] 张邦林 陈德辉 吴乃庚[1] 吴凯昕 李昊睿[1] XU Daosheng;CHEN Zitong;ZHANG Yanxia;DAI Guangfeng;ZHONG Shuixin;ZHANG Banglin;CHEN Dehui;WU Naigeng;WU Kaixin;LI Haorui(Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology,CMA/Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction,Guangzhou 510000)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所,中国气象局/广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室,广州510000

出　　处：《气象》2020年第11期1474-1484,共11页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1506901);广东省科技计划省直部门协同创新重点项目(2018B020208004);国家自然科学基金项目(U1811464)共同资助。

摘　　要：在南海台风模式(Tropical Regional Assimilation Model for the South China Sea,TRAMS)2.0版本基础上,从模式分辨率、动力框架、物理过程三个方面进行技术改进,形成了TRAMS 3.0版本。对2017年的台风预报进行评估,结果表明TRAMS 3.0模式比TRAMS 2.0模式有明显改进,其中72 h的平均路径误差减少了13.6 km(改进幅度为7%),强度预报误差减少了1.2 hPa(改进幅度为10.5%)。另外对于高空气象要素的预报,TRAMS 3.0模式也比TRAMS 2.0有全面的改进。分别对各项技术更新的效果进行敏感性测试,发现提高模式分辨率和更新对流参数化方案对TRAMS 3.0模式中南海台风预报效果的改进贡献最大。Based on the operational TRAMS(Tropical Region Assimilation Model for the South China Sea)2.0 version model,a series of technical updates were conducted,including model resolution,dynamical frame,and physical process,thus TRAMS 3.0 version model has been formed.Verifications of the typhoons in 2017 showed that track errors and intensity errors were reduced significantly,the 72 h mean track error was decreased by 7%(about 13.6 km),and the intensity was decreased by 10.5%(about 1.2 hPa).The meteorological elements were also improved by the newly TRAMS 3.0 model.Increasement of model resolution and revised cumulus scheme provided major contribution to forecast improvement in TRAMS 3.0 version.

关 键 词：台风模式 水平分辨率 对流参数化 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]