财政支出对全要素生产率有正向溢出效应吗?——基于城市层面面板数据的研究  

Does Fiscal Expenditure have a Positive Spillover Effect on TFP?-Research Based on Urban Panel Data

作　　者：宋准 但思颖[2] 杨光普[3] Song Zhun;Dan Siying;Yang Guangpu

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学,北京100872 [2]贵州师范大学,贵州贵安新区550025 [3]国务院发展研究中心,北京100010

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2020年第12期119-130,共12页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：中国人民大学2020年度拔尖创新人才培育资助计划成果。

摘　　要：财政支出在城市高质量发展中扮演着至关重要的角色,如何实现财政支出对表征城市高质量发展水平的TFP的正向溢出具有重大现实意义。本文基于2005~2016年中国城市层面的面板数据,使用空间面板杜宾模型,估计了城市财政支出对TFP的溢出效应,并通过区域间、地级市与非地级市之间空间权重矩阵的构建,细致地探讨了不同区域城市之间、不同行政级别城市之间财政支出的溢出效应。结果表明,无论是全样本层面、板块层面还是板块之间以及地级市与非地级市之间,财政支出及分项的教育、科学支出均表现出负向溢出的趋势,直接效应虽然为正但远不足以抵消负向的溢出效应。针对负向溢出、板块之间消极互动及高行政等级城市带动力不足的问题,提出相应的政策建议。Fiscal expenditure plays a vital role in high-quality development of city.How to realize the positive spillover of fiscal expenditure to total factor productivity(TFP),which represents the high-quality development level of cities,is of great practical significance.Based on panel data at the Chinese city level from 2005 to 2016,this paper uses the spatial panel Dubin model to estimate the spillover effect of urban fiscal expenditure on TFP,and constructs the spatial weight matrix between regions,prefecture-level cities and non-prefecture-level cities to carefully explored the spillover effects of fiscal expenditure between cities in different regions and between cities at different administrative levels.The results show that both fiscal expenditures and subsegments of education and science expenditures show negative spillovers at the full-sample level,at the plate level,and between plates,as well as between municipalities and non-municipalities,with the direct effect being positive but far from sufficient to offset the negative spillover effect.In response to the problems of negative spillovers,negative interactions between plates and lack of motivation in high administrative level cities,we propose corresponding policy recommendations.

关 键 词：财政支出 全要素生产率 空间溢出效应 

分 类 号：FQ61.5[经济管理—国民经济] F290