基于深度学习的“一带一路”沿线省域普惠金融发展水平评价  

Evaluation of the Inclusive Financial Development Level of Provinces along the Belt and Road Based on Deep Learning

作　　者：石京民 王万君 李健[2] Shi Jingmin;Wang Wanjun;Li Jian

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081 [2]北京理工大学人文与社会科学学院,北京100081 [3]伦敦国王学院自然与数学科学学院,英国伦敦WC2R2LS

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2020年第12期139-149,共11页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“流域区居民环境行为的影响因素、影响机制及治理机制”(71373022),项目负责人:李健;国家社科基金重点项目“我国军工上市公司自愿性信息披露特征及重大影响因素的统计研究”(13ATJ003),项目负责人:李慧云。

摘　　要：本文基于深度学习方法构建我国“一带一路”沿线省域普惠金融发展评价模型,并运用泰尔指数分解、核密度估计与梯度下降算法明晰普惠金融发展的时空格局、动态演进与影响因素。研究表明:(1)沿线省域普惠金融发展整体处于低水平、缓增长的成长期阶段;横向来看,沿线省域普惠金融发展水平呈“金字塔”型分布,除“极核”上海表现突出外,其他省域呈低水平均衡态势;纵向来看,沿线省域普惠金融发展水平稳步提升,其发展速度呈“高低相间、连片集群”的分布格局;(2)沿线省域普惠金融发展水平呈东高西低、南高北低的梯度分布格局。东部各省域分布呈两极分化趋势;东北、西南各省域分布相对均衡;西北各省域分布由两极分化向多极化转变;(3)银行业金融机构覆盖率、小贷公司信贷状况、银行业金融机构服务投诉率与不良贷款率是影响普惠金融发展水平的关键因素。This paper builds an inclusive financial development evaluation model of Chinese provinces along the Belt and Road based on deep learning method and clarifies the spatial-temporal pattern,dynamic evolution and influencing factors of inclusive financial development by using the methods of Theil index decomposition,Kernel density estimation and Batch gradient descent. The research shows that:( 1) The overall level of inclusive financial development of the provinces along the Belt and Road is at a growth stage of low-level and slow-growing. As for horizontal comparison,the level of inclusive financial development of the provinces along the Belt and Road is in a "pyramid"distribution. Except for Shanghai,which has outstanding performance as a polar nucleus,other provinces are in a low-level equilibrium situation. As for vertical comparison,the development of inclusive finance of the provinces along the Belt and Road is steadily increasing,showing a distribution of " high-low scattering and contiguous clustering".( 2) The level of inclusive financial development of the provinces along the Belt and Road presents a gradient distribution pattern of high in the east and low in the west,and high in the south and low in the north. The distribution of the development of inclusive finance in the eastern provinces shows a significant trend of polarization;The distribution of the development of inclusive finance in the northeast and southwest provinces is relatively balanced;The distribution of the development of inclusive finance in the northwest provinces has changed from bipolar to multipolar.( 3) The coverage of banking financial institutions,the credit status of micro-credit companies,the service complaint rate and NPL ratio of banking financial institutions are the key factors that affect the level of inclusive financial development.

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 普惠金融 深度学习 评估体系 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]