近60年祁连山地区降水量变化及干旱分析  

ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITATION CHANGES AND DROUGHT IN QILIAN MOUNTAINS IN THE LAST 60 YEARS

作　　者：霍金虎 祁栋林[3] HUO Jin-hu(Qinghai Haibei Prefecture Animal Husbandry Meteorological Test Station,Xihaizhen Qinghai 812200,China)

机构地区：[1]青海省海北牧业气象试验站,青海西海镇812200 [2]青海省防灾减灾重点实验室,青海西宁810001 [3]青海省气象科学研究所,青海西宁810001

出　　处：《青海草业》2020年第4期45-50,共6页Qinghai Prataculture

摘　　要：干旱是影响祁连山地区畜牧业发展最主要的自然灾害之一。本文利用1961~2017年月降水观测资料,以及《北方牧区草原干旱等级指标》中降水距平百分率指标的划分依据,分析了祁连山地区降水的变化和干旱发生的时空特征,结果表明:(1)1961~2017年降水量呈震荡递增趋势,其增长速率为13.6mm/10a;(2)降水量的季节变化特征明显,各季节降水量也表现出逐年递增的趋势,夏季降水量的年际增长率最大,春季、秋季年降水量的年际增长率较一致,冬季降水量的年际增长率最小;(3)祁连山地区全年当中特旱的发生概率为0.6%;重旱发生概率为4.7%;中旱发生概率为27.5%;轻旱发生概率为44.4%;无旱发生概率为22.8%。Drought is one of the most important natural disasters affecting the development of animal husbandry in Qilian Mountains.Based on monthly precipitation observations from 1961~2017,And the basis of the percentage of precipitation anomaly in the grassland drought grade index of northern pastoral area,The temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation and drought in Qilian Mountains,According to the results:(1)the precipitation in 1961~2017 showed an increasing trend,Growth rate mm/10 a.13.6;(2)The seasonal variation characteristics of precipitation are obvious,The precipitation of each season also shows the trend of increasing year by year,The highest annual increase in summer precipitation,The annual precipitation growth rate in spring and autumn is consistent,The annual growth rate of precipitation in winter is the smallest;(3)The probability of occurrence of special drought in Qilian Mountains is 0.6%in the whole year;The probability of severe drought is 4.7%;The probability of moderate drought occurrence is 27.5%;The probability of light drought is 44.4%;The probability of drought-free occurrence is 22.8.

关 键 词：降水变化特征 干旱等级 降水量 祁连山地区 

分 类 号：S812.1[农业科学—草业科学]