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作 者:郑志国[1,2] 程恩富 Zheng Zhiguo;Cheng Enfu
机构地区:[1]中共广东省委党校 [2]中国政治经济学学会 [3]中国社会科学院大学学术委员会 [4]中国社会科学院学部
出 处:《海派经济学》2020年第1期25-43,共19页Journal of Economics of Shanghai School
摘 要:在新时代应当依照宪法规定坚持推行计划生育,争取我国总人口回归适度区间,从根本上缓解对资源环境的压力,为实现社会主义现代化目标和中华民族永续发展创造必要条件。如果我国现在全面放开生育,总人口很可能在本世纪中叶突破极限规模,这是我国资源环境条件和社会主义现代化目标不能允许的。通过实行科学的人口规划和严密的法律、政策,对人们的生育行为进行合理引导、规范和调节,使总人口回归适度区间是完全可能的。要制定同第二个百年目标相适应的长期人口发展战略,积极预防和化解总人口适度缩减对经济发展的某些负面影响,正确处理坚持计划生育和应对人口老龄化的关系,做好新时代坚持推行计划生育的舆论导向工作。In the new era,it’s imperative to insist on implementing family planning policy in compliance with China’s constitution, striving for the return of China’s gross population to a moderate range so as to fundamentally alleviate the pressure on resources and the environment and create the necessary conditions for achieving the goal of socialist modernization and sustaining the Chinese nation’s development.If China completely turn to a full relaxation of the family planning policy,the gross population is rather likely to break the limit scale by the middle of this century,which is unacceptable to China’s resources and environment and its goal of socialist modernization.It is well feasible to implement scientific population planning and strict laws and policies to rationally guide,regulate and adjust people’s reproduction behavior so that the gross population returns to a reasonable range.Therefore,more efforts should be paid to develop a long-term population development strategy that is compatible with the second centenary goal,actively prevent and resolve the pressure caused by the reasonable population shrink on economic development,correctly handle the relationship between insisting on the family planning policy and coping with population aging,and well guide the public opinion of insisting on implementing the family planning policy in the new era.
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