中国碳净排放脱钩效应时空演变特征分析  

Analysis on the Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of China's Net Carbon Emissions Decoupling Effect

作　　者：李治国[1] 赵越 Li Zhiguo;Zhao Yue(School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum,Qingdao 266580,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院,山东青岛266580

出　　处：《甘肃科学学报》2020年第6期135-142,共8页Journal of Gansu Sciences

摘　　要：森林资源碳汇作用与能源消费碳排放一同影响我国的碳净排放量,测算碳净排放量并研究其脱钩效应时空演变特征在现代社会具有重要的战略意义。根据2007—2018年间中国大陆30个省、市、自治区统计数据,估算各地区碳净排放量,同时结合Kaya恒等式与LMDI分解法,基于Tapio脱钩模型定义并测算出观测年间各地区影响碳净排放量脱钩指数的四大分脱钩指数,最终分析了各地区脱钩程度时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)我国低碳减排、植树造林政策成果显著,目前已达“负碳净排放量”的目标;(2)在2010年之后我国碳净排放量总脱钩指数递减于0,2018年首次实现强脱钩,总体而言呈现出较好的发展态势;(3)华北、华东地区强脱钩状态的保持主要源于能源强度效应分脱钩指数,西北、东北地区碳净排放强脱钩状态的基本实现则主要源于较高的碳汇效应分脱钩指数。Carbon sink together with carbon emission affects China's net carbon emissions,which indicates great strategic significance to calculate the net carbon emissions and study the spatial-temporal characteristics of its decoupling effect.Based on the data of 30 provinces from 2007 to 2018,net carbon emissions of various provinces were estimated.Meanwhile Kaya identity and LMDI method were combined with Tapio decoupling model to define and calculate the four major net carbon emissions sub-decoupling indexes during the observation years.Eventually the spatial-temporal characteristics of net carbon emissions decoupling effect were analyzed.The results denoted that(1)China’s emission reduction and afforestation policies had achieved remarkable results and had yet reached the target of"negative carbon emissions".(2)After 2010,the total decoupling index of China’s net carbon emissions decreased to 0 and the strong decoupling status was achieved for the first time in 2018,conveying a promising development prospect.(3)The maintenance of the strong decoupling status in north and east China was mainly due to the energy intensity sub-decoupling index,and the basic realization of the strong decoupling status in northwest and northeast China were mainly due to the higher carbon sink sub-decoupling index.

关 键 词：碳排放量 碳汇量 碳净排放量 Tapio脱钩指数 Kaya恒等式 LMDI因素分解法 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]