地区差距与供给侧结构性改革——“三期叠加”下的内生增长  

China's Regional Gap and Supply-side Structural Reform:Endogenous Growth in a Transition Period

作　　者：邓忠奇 高廷帆 朱峰[2] DENG Zhongqi;GAO Tingfan;ZHU Feng(School of Economics,Sichuan University;Institute for Innovation and Development,Tsinghua University)

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院,610065 [2]清华大学创新发展研究院,100084

出　　处：《经济研究》2020年第10期22-37,共16页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(18ZDA035);青年项目(18CJY015)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：在没有发生重大经济事件的情况下,2013年起中国南北经济差距逐渐拉大;2016年起,在经济总量差距进一步拉大的情况下,南北地区的全要素生产率却开始趋同。探明南北差距扩大的原因并提出解决之道是摆在全面建成小康社会决胜期的一道难题。通过对中国经济增长历程的梳理,本文发现新时代南北差距问题本质上是经济增长方式转型的老问题。实证研究表明:1998年至2018年资本贡献了74.7%的中国经济增长,而全要素生产率只贡献了8.3%,在转变资本拉动型增长方式的过程中,南北地区承受了不同的阵痛,导致南北差距扩大。在"三期叠加"阶段,南北差距扩大具有一定的必然性,2008年世界金融危机仅仅是导火索,其后的经济刺激计划则形成了短暂的隔离带,将南北差距问题推迟到2013年。2016年起南北全要素生产率差距的缩小得益于供给侧结构性改革,改革的有效性在本文得到验证。基于实证分析结论,本文认为要继续推进供给侧结构性改革,重视企业尤其是创新型企业的集聚,以此为抓手促进创新型要素在北方的培育和高效利用。Since 2013,there has been a new trend in China's economic geography:the gap between the northern and southern regions is gradually widening.The GDP,GDP per capita,growth rate,and production efficiency are all lower in the northern region than in the southern region,and there has been no obvious trend of the gap narrowing.This study's statistical analyses identify two stylized facts about the north-south gap:the“2013 phenomenon”,when in the absence of major economic events,the gaps in the economic aggregates and growth rates between the north and the south widened suddenly;and the“2016 phenomenon”,when the gap between the north and the south's economic aggregates widened further,but the gap in total factor productivity(TFP)began to narrow.Few studies have used theoretical or quantitative analyses to clearly explain these differences between the north and the south or their underlying causes.This study fills this gap.Combing the history of economic growth since the founding of the People's Republic of China,this study finds that the underlying cause of the current gap between the north and the south is the transformation of the economic growth pattern.Using an iterative method based on the slacks-based measure of directional distance function(SBM_DDF),we find that from 1998 to 2018,capital,labor,energy,and TFP were responsible for 74.7%,2.1%,14.8%,and 8.3%of economic growth,respectively.It is indisputable that China's growth miracle has come from this capital-driven economic growth pattern.In the 21st century,the transformation of the south has been relatively successful,whereas the transformation of the north has been relatively unsuccessful.Under the shock of the 2008 global financial crisis and supply-side structural reform pressure,the north has been compelled to change its growth pattern,and has thus suffered more than the south.On the basis of this insight,this study empirically determines that the widening gap in 2013 was the result of the governmental economic stimulus plans that postponed the probl

关 键 词：南北经济差距 供给侧结构性改革 经济增长方式 内生增长 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]