近期中国天然气发展回顾与未来趋势展望  

Review and Prospect of China Natural Gas Development

作　　者：周庆凡[1] Zhou Qingfan(SINOPEC Petroleum Exploration and Production Research Institute,Beijing 100083)

机构地区：[1]中国石化石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083

出　　处：《中外能源》2020年第11期1-8,共8页Sino-Global Energy

摘　　要：2008~2019年中国天然气产业快速发展,已迈入世界天然气大国行列。天然气消费量快速增长,年均复合增长率达12.8%,已成为世界第三大天然气消费国。在一次能源消费中天然气占比不断提升,2019年达到7.8%。天然气储量不断增长,天然气证实储量年均复合增长率约10.9%。天然气产量持续增长,年均复合增速为7.4%,2011年迈上1000×10^8m^3的台阶,目前为世界第五大产气国。天然气进口快速增长,2018年和2019年为世界第一大天然气进口国。天然气对外依存度持续升高,2008~2019年对外依存度上升了38个百分点以上,目前对外依存度接近45%。未来较长时期中国天然气消费量和产量仍将继续增长,但增长速率逐步放缓。未来中国天然气发展还充满挑战和不确定性,新冠疫情、能源转型、技术进步和天然气资源基础等因素都将影响中国天然气的发展趋势。From 2008 to 2019,China′s natural gas industry has developed rapidly with more produced natural gas in the world.Natural gas consumption has been growing rapidly with average annual compound growth rate being up to 12.8%.So China has become the third largest natural gas consumer in the world.The natural gas consumption are rising continuously,which accounted for 7.8% of primary energy consumption in 2019.Natural gas reserves are increasing continuously,and the average annual compound growth rate of the proven reserves is about 10.9%.The production of the natural gas is increasing continuously with 7.4%of the average annual compound growth rate.Now,China is the fifth largest gas producer in the world with the production reaching the level of 1000×10^8m^3 in 2011.Natural gas imports are growing rapidly,making it the world′s largest natural gas importer in 2018 and 2019.The external dependence on the natural gas continues to rise,which rises by more than 38 percentages from 2008 to 2019 and is nearly 45% at present.For a long time to come,China′s natural gas consumption and production will continue to grow,but the growth rate will gradually slow down.The future development of the natural gas in China is still full of challenges and uncertainties.Covid-19,energy transformation,technological progress and natural gas resource base will all affect the development trend of the natural gas in China.

关 键 词：天然气 消费量 储量 产量 进口量 对外依存度 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]