基于电力现货市场风险管理的新能源电力现货辅助决策系统设计  

Design of Decision Support System for New Energy Electricity Spot Market Based on Risk Management of Electricity Spot Market

作　　者：和军梁 米晨旭 许爽 于仝 高小淇 He Junliang;Mi Chenxu;Xu Shuang;Yu Tong;Gao Xiaoqi(Longyuan Power Group Energy Sale Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100034)

机构地区：[1]龙源电力集团能源销售有限公司,北京100034

出　　处：《中外能源》2020年第11期28-33,共6页Sino-Global Energy

摘　　要：根据2017年发布的《关于开展电力现货市场建设试点工作的通知》,国内8个地区作为电力现货市场第一批试点。电力现货市场的模式对发电企业的生产经营带来革命性的变化。在电力现货市场开启后,不重视风险管理将给新能源发电企业运营带来较大风险。为此,分析了电力现货市场风险,包括交易规则变化风险、经营收益风险和营销管理风险,提出了新能源电力现货市场辅助决策支持系统设计的必要性和设计思路,基于发电能力预测和综合成本分析提出了新能源电力现货辅助决策系统设计方案,为新能源交易业务开展提供技术支撑路径,制定交易策略,提升发电企业价值创造能力。积极应对电力市场化变革,应在集团和场站级层面分别建立专业交易决策团队,合理配备交易师、交易员岗位和管理人员结构,打造强大的辅助决策支持系统。According to the Notice on Construction of Pilot Electricity Spot Markets issued in 2017,eight regions in China have become the first batch of pilot electricity spot markets.The electricity spot market model has brought revolutionary changes to the operation of power generation enterprises.After the electricity spot market opens,ignoring risk management will bring great risks to the operation of new energy power generation enterprises.For this reason,the risks of electricity spot market including the risk of changes in trading rules,the operating income risk and the marketing management risk are analyzed,the necessity and design ideas of decision support system for new energy electricity spot market are discussed,and the design scheme of the decision support system for new energy electricity spot market is put forward based on generating ca-pacity forecast and comprehensive cost analysis,so as to provide a technical support path for the development of new energy trading business,formulate trading strategies and enhance the value creation abilities of power generation enterprises.To actively respond to the market-oriented reform of electricity market,professional transaction decision-making teams should be established respectively at group and station levels,the positions of trader and assistant trader as well as the management structure should be reasonably allocated,and a powerful decision support system should be established.

关 键 词：电力现货市场 风险分析 发电能力预测 综合成本分析 辅助决策支持系统 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济] TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]