流域上下游水资源与水污染冲突评估——基于水足迹粗糙集理论  

Assessment of conflicts of water resources and pollution between upstream and downstream in a basin based on water footprints and rough sets

作　　者：薛英岚 陈岩 曾维华[1] XUE Yinglan;CHEN Yan;ZENG Weihua(School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of P.R.China,Beijing 100012,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境学院,北京100875 [2]生态环境部环境规划院,北京100012

出　　处：《水利经济》2020年第6期43-49,83,共8页Journal of Economics of Water Resources

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0506403)。

摘　　要：将水足迹理论引入流域上下游间用水和排污冲突评估,通过蓝水足迹和灰水足迹表征区域社会经济发展中用水和排污的需求,并进一步得到蓝水和灰水足迹的可持续性,用来代表流域水环境承载状态。最后基于粗糙集理论,量化流域内用水、排污的整体冲突局势和上下游区域间的冲突大小,作为流域未来水资源和水环境规划的依据。以青海省湟水河流域为例,将该方法体系应用于其上下游冲突评估。结果显示,在2011—2015年流域水环境整体冲突局势为中等且趋势较为稳定,水资源在干旱年(2013年)冲突较大。位于下游的西宁市区,与上游和中游各区域冲突均较为显著,是未来规划中需要考虑的重点。The theory of water footprints is introduced into the conflict of water and sewage pollution between the upstream and the downstream of a basin,and by using blue and grey water footprints to represent the demand for water utilization and pollution discharge in the regional socio-economic development,the sustainability of the blue and grey water footprints is further obtained to represent the carrying status of water environment in the basin.Finally,based on the theory of rough sets,the overall conflict situation of water utilization and pollution discharge in the basin and the level of conflicts between upstream and downstream regions are quantified as the basis for the future planning of water resources and environment of the basin.Taking the Huangshui River Basin in Qinghai Province as an example,the proposed method is applied to its conflict assessment.The results show that the overall conflict situation of water environment in the basin during the period from 2011 to 2015 is moderate and the trend is relatively stable,and there is a serious conflict in the drought year(2013)of water resources.The conflict between the urban district of Xining City in the downstream and other regions in the upstream and middle reaches is more conspicuous,which needs to be highlighted in the basin planning in the future.

关 键 词：冲突评估 水足迹 粗糙集 湟水流域 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]