基于不同冲击和不同政策搭配的最优货币政策规则  

Optimal Monetary Policy Rule Based on Various Impacts and Distinct Policy Collocations

作　　者：刘金全[1,2] 张筱婉[2] 方毅[1,2] LIU Jin-quan;ZHANG Xiao-wan;FANG Yi(Center for Quantitative Economics,Jilin University,130012;Business School,Jilin University,130012)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,130012 [2]吉林大学商学院,130012

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2020年第11期69-79,共11页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于随机占优的高阶偏好投资组合构建”(批准号:71871104)的阶段性成果之一。

摘　　要：本文将盯住社会融资总量作为政策目标,将宏观审慎引入传统货币政策规则,通过建立DSGE模型研究拓展型Taylor规则。这里考察不同冲击下的基于不同参数的货币政策规则的政策响应与政策效果,以研究不同宏观经济背景和不同政策目标搭配下的最优货币政策规则。这里通过划分不同情景下货币政策对不同政策目标的重视程度,以体现政策实际操作中的灵活性,并且克服采用传统方法进行政策评价,由于稳态分析引起长期参数与短期目标分离的矛盾。结果显示,以涵盖金融稳定的拓展的最优货币政策规则,能实现货币稳定与金融稳定的双重目标;其政策规则既表现出一定的稳定性,又表现出对经济发展环境和经济状态的相依性。This paper focuses on the total social financing as a policy goal,introduces the macro-prudential policy into traditional monetary policy rule,and studies the optimal monetary policy rule under different macroeconomic backgrounds and the collocation of different policy objectives.We partition the emphasis degrees of monetary policies under different scenarios aiming at different policy objectives to reflect the policy flexibility in the actual operation.Meanwhile,we overcome the contradiction of the separation of long-term parameters and shortterm goals caused by steady state analysis of traditional method of policy assessment.The findings indicate that the double goals of the monetary stability and the financial stability can be reached if we perform the extended optimal policy rule.The policy rules reflect both the certain stability and the dependency of the economic development environment and economic situation.

关 键 词：宏观审慎拓展型 泰勒规则 政策搭配 政策评价 

分 类 号：F839[经济管理—金融学]