铁路发展水平动态测度及其对经济发展的贡献研究——基于西部发展面板数据的实证分析  

Dynamic Measurement of Railway Development Level and Its Contribution to Economy--Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of Western Development

作　　者：薛锋[1,2] 李青青 李庆华[3] XUE Feng;LI Qingqing;LI Qinghua(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu,Sichuan 611756,China;National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology,Southwest Jiaotong University Chengdu,Sichuan 611756,China;School of Engineering,Tibet University,Lhasa,Tibet 850000,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都611756 [2]西南交通大学综合交通大数据应用技术国家工程实验室,四川成都611756 [3]西藏大学工学院,西藏拉萨850000

出　　处：《高原科学研究》2020年第4期95-103,116,共10页Plateau Science Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目(20YJCZH113);四川省社会科学规划项目“统计发展专项课题”(SC19TJ027);西南交通大学“双一流”建设项目“交通软科学类”(JDSYLYB2018030);西藏高校青创项目(QC2015-22).

摘　　要：基于西部地区2003—2019年为期17年的省际面板数据,选取铁路运输投资、运营水平和产出效能三个方面的指标,运用ADF和LLC单位根检验法对各指标的一阶稳定性进行了检验;通过模型外生性检验,可知铁路从业人员数量和铁路营业里程对西部经济的影响属于外生因素;对其余变量建立Panel-VAR模型,进一步采用脉冲响应函数法(IFR)和方差分解法定量分析和解释了铁路各阶段发展过程对西部各地区经济的影响。研究发现,我国西部铁路建设投资阶段对经济的影响作用小于铁路运营过程产生的影响;短期内提高铁路客、货运量对经济增长具有促进作用,长期作用水平下会带来相反的结果;制造业全社会固定资产投资对西部经济的促进作用也表现在短时期内,长期作用下对西部各方面经济发展具有抑制作用。the provincial panel data from 2003 to 2017 was collected in the western regions and corresponding indicators were selected from the three stages of railway construction,operation and service.The current situation of the railway development in the western region was measured and analyzed quantitatively.The panel sequence vector autoregressive model(panel var)was established by using Johansen cointegration test method to study the contribution of railway development level to economic growth.ADF unit root method and generalized distance method(GMM)were used to test the reliability of the model;impulse response function(IFR)and variance decomposition methods were used to analyze and predict the results of the model.The average elasticity of railway construction,operation,service and economic growth in Western China is 0.239,0.533 and 0.714,respectively,which indicates that the gap between passenger and freight transportation turnover and economic development in Western China is the smallest.Overall,the construction of railway infrastructure in China has a positive role in promoting regional economic development with varying degrees,among which the construction of railway operating mileage promotes the economic development and can be considered as a long-term investment and construction project.

关 键 词：西部经济 铁路发展 面板数据 Panel-VAR模型 动态测度 

分 类 号：TP391.4[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]