中国大豆生产现状与前景展望  

Present situation and prospect of soybean production in China

作　　者：王禹[1] 李干琼[1] 喻闻[1] 冯瑶[2] 钟鑫[3] 刘然 许世卫[1] WANG Yu;LI Gan-qiong;YU Wen;FENG Yao;ZHONG Xin;LIU Ran;XU Shi-wei(Agricultural Information Institute of CAAS,Beijing 100081,China;Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning of CAAS,Beijing 100081,China;China State Farms&Tropical Agriculture,Beijing 100081,China;AstraZeneca,Shanghai 201210,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081 [2]中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081 [3]中国农垦经济发展中心,北京100081 [4]阿斯利康投资(中国)有限公司,上海201210

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2020年第21期201-207,共7页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFE0104600);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(JBYW-AII-2019-17)。

摘　　要：通过对1949年至今全国大豆(Glycine max L.)历史数据的整理,详细分析了各地区大豆产量、播种面积和单产变动规律、分布特征和波动周期,探讨了影响中国大豆生产的重要因素,建立了中国大豆单产预测模型(指数拟合曲线、线性拟合曲线和多项式拟合曲线),对未来(2020—2035年)中国大豆产量进行展望。研究发现,中华人民共和国成立以来中国大豆产量的增加主要来自单产增长;与其他粮食品种相比,中国大豆生产表现出生产地区相对集中、产量波动频率高、波动周期短和波动幅度大的特点;预计2030年中国大豆产量将达0.25亿t,到2035年将增加至0.27亿t,低于美国、巴西等国家的产量水平,但远高于加拿大、澳大利亚以及印度等国家。Based on the historical data of soybean from 1949 in China,this study analyzed the variation law,distribution characteris⁃tics and fluctuation period of soybean yield in detail,sowing area and per unit yield all regions,discussed the important factors,which affected soybean production in China,and established the prediction model of soybean per unit yield in China(index fitting curve,lin⁃ear fitting curve and polynomial fitting curve)to analyze the future soybean production in China from 2020 to 2035.It is found that the increase of soybean production in China mainly comes from the increase of per unit yield since the founding of the people’s Republic of China;Compared with other food varieties,the soybean production in China has the characteristics of relatively concentrated area,high fluctuation frequency,short fluctuation period and large fluctuation range;It is estimated that China’s soybean production will reach 25 million tons in 2030 and 27 million tons in 2035,which is lower than that of the United States,Brazil and other countries,but far higher than that of Canada,Australia Asia and India.

关 键 词：大豆(Glycine max L.) 生产 模拟 展望 

分 类 号：F326.12[经济管理—产业经济] S565.1[农业科学—作物学]