我国铁路运输业碳排放效率与影响因素分析  

An Analysis of Carbon Emission Efficiency and Factors of China’s Railway Transportation Industry

作　　者：于克美 武剑红[1] 李红昌[1] Yu Kemei;Li Hongchang;Wu Jianhong(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044

出　　处：《技术经济》2020年第11期70-76,86,共8页Journal of Technology Economics

摘　　要：在我国节能减排、绿色交通和交通强国背景下,本文以18个铁路局集团有限公司为研究对象,基于非期望产出DEA模型、Tobit模型以及Bootstrap模型,建立铁路碳排放效率的经济计量模型。模型以最大化铁路期望产出并最小化非期望产出为目标函数,依据线性规划方法求解。本文研究结果表明,铁路局集团有限公司碳排放效率表现出地区差异性,基尼系数从0.27下降到0.14,且这种差异性在逐年缩小,表明铁路产业总体碳排放效率呈现递增态势。2010年后,DEA有效的公司数量由3个增加到5个,分别是太原铁路局集团有限公司、济南铁局集团有限公司、广铁局集团有限公司、呼和浩特铁路局集团有限公司与兰州铁路局集团有限公司。通过第二阶段的计量模型测算得到以下结论:在现阶段的综合交通网络中,高速铁路与民航和公路运输方式间的竞争效应大于其合作效应;高速铁路与碳排放效率呈现出倒“U”型,高速铁路有其最优规模区间,从而更有效地提高铁路产业碳排放效率。Under the background of energy conservation,emission reduction,green transportation and transportation strengthening national power,a regression on railway carbon emission efficiency of 18 Railway Group Companies in China is established based on the theory of undesired output DEA model,Tobit model and bootstrap model.The objective function of the model is to maximize the expected output and minimize the unexpected output.The model is solved by linear programming and other theoretical methods.The results show that the carbon emission efficiency of Railway Group Corporation shows regional differences,and the Gini coefficient decreases from 0.27 to 0.14,indicating regional difference decreases year by year.After 2010,the number of DEA effective companies increased from three to five,namely:Taiyuan Railway Group Company,Jinan Railway Group Company,Guangzhou Railway Group Company,Hohhot Railway Group Company and Lanzhou Railway Group Company.Through the second stage of regression,it finds that in the current transportation network,the competition effect between high⁃speed railway and civil aviation and highway is greater than its cooperation effect;the efficiency of high⁃speed railway and carbon emission presents an“inverted U⁃shaped”,that is,the scale of high⁃speed railway has an efficient scale area which can promote carbon emission efficiency.

关 键 词：铁路 碳排放效率 基尼系数 高速铁路 

分 类 号：F532.3[经济管理—产业经济]