确诊病例时序传播图及活动轨迹表在新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情分析中的作用  

The role of time-series propagation map and activity path of confirmed cases in the analysis and determination of COVID-19 epidemic

作　　者：曹莉[1] 周永江 张帆[1] 刘云儒[1] 王小丹[1] 易聪[1] 许琼军[1] 肖莎[1] 王璐 Cao Li;Zhou Yongjiang;Zhang Fan;Liu Yunru;Wang Xiaodan;Yi Cong;Xu Qiongjun;Xiao Sha;Wang Lu(School of Public Health Hainan Medical University,Haikou 571199,China;National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]海南医学院公共卫生学院,海口571199 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制中心,北京102206

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2020年第11期1782-1785,共4页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

摘　　要：目的探讨时序传播图和病例活动轨迹表在描述某地区新型冠状病毒肺炎传播模式方面的优势,为政府相关部门进行疫情防控提供依据。方法将某地区某时段确诊病例按照其发病时间、年龄、性别、密切接触人数及相互关系,绘制时序传播图和发病前14 d的活动轨迹表。结果截至2020年2月10日,该地区报告的63例新型冠状病毒肺炎病例中,确诊57例(含死亡1例),无症状感染者6例;输入性病例57例(占总报告病例数的90.48%),聚集性疫情报告病例36例(占总报告病例数的57.14%),病例间互为亲友关系或同乘乘客,病例代际已传播至第4代。结论确诊病例时序传播图和活动轨迹表提示,该地区新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情以输入性病例为主,聚集性传播成为当地疫情发展的主要构成。确诊病例时序传播图和活动轨迹表简单明了,可一图看懂当地传播模式,值得在重大传染病防控工作中推广。Objective The time sequence transmission map and the cases travel track were used to explain the chain of transmission,describe the characteristics of transmission and analyze the mode of epidemic of novel coronavirus pneumonia,so as to provide evidence for the relevant government departments to carry out epidemic prevention and control.Methods The time sequence transmission map and the cases travel track table were drawn,according to the time of incidence,age,sex,number of close contacts and their interrelations.Results At the end of February 10,2020,63 COVID-19 cases were reported in the research area.Among them,57 cases were confirmed(1 deaths)and 6 cases were asymptomatic,57 cases were imported cases(90.48%),36 cases were reported by cluster epidemic(57.14%)among friends and relatives.Cases have been spread to the fourth generation.Conclusion The time sequence transmission map and the cases travel track showed that,in the research area,the epidemic situation of COVID-19 was mainly caused by imported case,and the clustering transmission was the major spread model.The time sequence transmission map and the cases travel track are worth popularizing in the prevention and control of major infectious diseases.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 时序传播图 活动轨迹 流行病学 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统] R181.3[医药卫生—内科学]