四种GCM在雅砻江流域的比较及未来降水模拟研究  

Comparison of Four GCMs in the Yalong River Basin and Simulation of Future Precipitation

作　　者：曹琛 岳青华 郭靖 闫宝伟[1] 杨百银 马良 CAO Chen;YUE Qing-hua;GUO Jing;YAN Bao-wei;YANG Bai-yin;MA Liang(School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, China;East China Investigation and Design Institute, Hangzhou 311122, China;China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute, Beijing 100120, China)

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学土木与水利工程学院,武汉430074 [2]中国电建集团华东勘测设计研究院有限公司,杭州311122 [3]水利部水电水利规划设计总院,北京100120

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2020年第12期21-26,共6页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402708);水电工程水文气象重大关键技术应用研究(DJ-ZDZX-2016-02)。

摘　　要：利用ASD模型,将CanESM2、CNRM-CM5、GFDL-ESM3M和MIROC-ESM-CHEM四种大气环流模式(GCM)输出的低、中、高浓度排放情景下的气候因子统计降尺度到雅砻江流域的15个气象站点,模拟基准期的逐日降水并与实测值进行比较,对比分析了4种GCM对研究区域的降水模拟效果,同时预测了流域未来2021-2100年的降水变化。结果表明,各模式在雅砻江的适用性结果为MIROC>GFDL>CNRM>CanESM;雅砻江流域未来降水将呈现增加的趋势,且随着排放浓度的升高,降水增幅增大。By using the ASD model,the statistical factors of the climate factors in the low,medium,and high concentration emission scenarios output from the four general circulation models(GCM)of CanESM2,CNRM-CM5,GFDL-ESM3M,and MIROC-ESM-CHEM are downscaled to the Yalong River basin at 15 weather stations,the daily precipitation in the reference period is simulated and compared with the measured values.The effects of 4 GCMs on the simulation of precipitation in the study area are compared and analyzed.At the same time,the precipitation of the basin in the future 2021-2100 years is predicted.The results show that the applicability of each model on the Yalong River is MIROC>GFDL>CNRM>CanESM;the future precipitation of the Yalong River basin will show an increasing trend,and the precipitation will increase as the concentration of emissions increases.

关 键 词：ASD 大气环流模式 雅砻江流域 统计降尺度 未来降水 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]