基于高中低发展层次比较法预测我国人均用电量饱和趋势  

Forecast for China’s Saturation Trend of Per Capita Electricity Consumption Based on Comparison Method of Low,Middle and High Levels

作　　者：吴舒萍[1] 黄庆丰[1] 姜阳[1] WU Shuping;HUANG Qingfeng;JIANG Yang(Fujian College of Water Conservancy and Electric Power,Yong’an 366000,China)

机构地区：[1]福建水利电力职业技术学院,福建永安366000

出　　处：《湖南理工学院学报（自然科学版）》2020年第4期38-44,共7页Journal of Hunan Institute of Science and Technology(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：福建省教育厅B类科技研究项目(JZ180473)。

摘　　要：饱和电力负荷预测对我国能源发展、电网结构规划具有重要现实意义.以我国2002年至2014年人均用电量为基础数据,结合已进入人均用电量饱和发展阶段的OECD国家数据以及我国国情,设定我国人均用电量高中低发展三个层次极限水平值,并基于Logistic原理构建了相应三个层次预测模型.通过与灰色Verhulst预测模型、2015~2019年我国实际人均用电量变化趋势比较,推断出我国人均用电量饱和拐点将发生在2027~2030年、极限值在8000~10000 kWh.Based on the per capita electricity consumption from 2002 to 2014,combined with data of OECD countries and China,this paper sets the limit value of low,middle and high level for the per capita electricity consumption of China.On the basis of Logistic model,we establish corresponding prediction models.Comparing the model with grey Verhulst model and the saturation trend of per capita electricity consumption of the country,we predicts that the nation’s inflection point on the saturation of per capita electricity consumption will come during the period time from 2027 to 2030 with limit value between 8000 and 10000 kWh.

关 键 词：人均用电量 饱和增长 饱和极限值 LOGISTIC模型 灰色VERHULST模型 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]