RCP情景下未来气候变化对河南省大豆生育期和产量的影响分析  

The effects of future climate change on soybean growth period and yield in Henan province under RCP scenario

作　　者：刘佳[1,2] 李聪[1,2] 李彤霄 刘燕 LIU Jia;LI Cong;LI Tong-xiao;LIU Yan(CMA-Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique,Zhengzhou450003,China;Zhengzhou Meteorological Bureau,Zhengzhou 450000,China;Henan Institute of Meteorological Science,Zhengzhou450000,China;Anyang Meteorological Bureau,Anyang455000,Henan,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局·河南气象局农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室,郑州450003 [2]郑州市气象局,郑州450000 [3]河南省气象科学研究所,郑州450000 [4]安阳市气象局,河南安阳455000

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2020年第22期81-85,110,共6页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：中国气象局农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室科学研究基金项目(AMF201704);河南省气象局科研计划项目(KM201816)。

摘　　要：利用林州市2008-2017年、黄泛区农场2006-2017年和正阳县2000-2008年的大豆观测数据和同期气候资料,对CROPGRO-Soybean模型进行调参和验证,得到适合河南省南部、中部和北部地区的大豆模型参数。引入未来典型浓度路径RCP4.5和RCP8.5气候情景数据,分析了未来气候变化情景下,大豆的生育期和产量对气候变化的响应情况。结果表明,河南省大豆开花期和始粒期在未来典型浓度路径RCP4.5和RCP8.5气候情景下,呈延长的趋势,且RCP8.5气候情景下延长的天数明显多于RCP4.5气候情景下。河南省大豆开花期延长的趋势表现为中部>北部>南部,始粒期延长的趋势表现为中部>南部>北部。河南省大豆成熟期在未来典型浓度路径RCP4.5和RCP8.5气候情景下相似,大豆成熟期延长的趋势表现为北部>中部>南部。河南省大豆产量在未来典型浓度路径RCP4.5和RCP8.5气候情景下,呈减少的趋势,且RCP8.5气候情景下的减少程度较RCP4.5气候情景下更明显。河南省大豆产量从南到北呈加速减少的趋势,南部地区减少趋势最小。Based on the soybean observational data and the corresponding climatic data of Linzhou city in 2008-2017,Huangfanqu Farm in 2006-2017,Zhengyang county in 2000-2008 were selected to verify the model of CROPGRO-Soybean,and the model parameters suitable for the southern,central and northern regions of Henan province were found.By introducing the climate scenario data of future typical concentration paths RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,the response of soybean growth period and yield to climate change in the future climate change scenario were analyzed.The results showed that the flowering period and the first seed period of soybean in Henan showed a prolonging trend under the climate conditions of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of the future typical concentration paths,and the prolonging days under the climate conditions of RCP8.5 were more than that of RCP4.5.The prolongation of flowering period of soybean in Henan was the central>the north>the south.And the prolongation of first seed period of soybean in Henan was the central>the south>the north.The maturation period of soybean in Henan was similar under the climate conditions of future typical concentration paths RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,the prolongation trend of soybean maturation period showed the north>the central>the south.Soybean yield in Henan province showed a decreasing trend under the climate conditions of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,and the reduction under the climate conditions of RCP8.5 was higher than that of RCP4.5.The soybean yield in Henan decreased rapidly from south to north,but the trend in the central region was the smallest.

关 键 词：RCP情景 大豆 气候变化 生育期 产量 

分 类 号：S565.1[农业科学—作物学] S162.54