中国人口初婚风险的影响因素及异质性研究——基于性别和区域细分视角的分析  

Study on the Influencing Factors and Heterogeneity of First Marriage Risk inChina:Analysis from the Perspective of Gender and Region

作　　者：薄文广[1] 张宏洲 李佳宇 BO Wen-guang;ZHANG Hong-zhou;LI Jia-yu(Institute of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济研究所,天津300071

出　　处：《南方人口》2020年第6期13-29,共17页South China Population

摘　　要：同世界主要工业化国家经历的特征一样,中国年轻一代的初婚年龄也呈现日益增加态势,在当前中国老龄化问题日益加剧背景下,考察中国个体的初婚风险及影响因素就显得尤为重要。本文采用2012年、2013年和2015的中国综合社会调查数据,通过建立时间相依Cox比例风险模型,对中国人口初婚风险的影响因素及其影响因素在不同性别和区域中的异质性进行了实证分析。研究结果发现:(1)中国女性初婚风险显著高于男性,农村初婚风险显著大于城市;(2)个体层面的受教育程度对女性初婚的延迟作用比男性更大,个人收入水平会降低城市样本初婚风险;家庭层面的住房拥有情况会增加城市样本初婚风险,母亲受教育程度会降低城市样本初婚风险;社会层面的商品房销售价格会显著降低城市样本初婚风险,且对女性的抑制作用要大于男性,政府人均公共服务支出会显著增加女性样本初婚风险,而对男性无显著影响;(3)城市样本和农村样本初婚风险影响因素存在显著异质性:家庭层面和社会层面因素对城市样本初婚风险影响日益明显,而农村样本初婚风险依然更多受个体层面因素影响。Similar to the changes in major industrialized countries,the age of first marriage of the younger generation in China is increasing as well.As the rapid population aging,it is imperative to investigate the influencing factors of first marriage risk of individuals in China.Based on the data from CGSS(China General Social Survey)in 2012,2013,2015 and by Cox risk model,this paper quantitatively analyzes the influencing factors of first marriage risk and the heterogeneity by gender and region.The empirical results demonstrate that:1.The first marriage risk of Chinese women is significantly higher than that of men,and the first marriage risk in rural areas is significantly higher than that in urban areas;2.the Individual education has a greater delayed effect on women's first marriage than that on men,and the individual income decreases the risk of first marriage.While the urban housing ownership of the family increases the first marriage risk,and mother’s educational level reduces the first marriage risk.The more macro perspective of commercial housing price decreases the first marriage risk of the urban samples,and the per capita public service expenditures of the local government increases the first marriage risk of female while no effects on the male;3.On the whole,the influencing factors of first marriage risk in urban samples and rural samples are obviously heterogeneous:the first marriage risk of urban samples is more affected by household and social factors,while that of the rural samples is more influenced by individual factors.

关 键 词：初婚风险 影响因素 性别 区域 异质性 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]