基于LMDI的滇中受水区农业用水量变化影响因素分析  

Analysis of Factors Affecting the Change of Agricultural Water Consumption in Water Receiving Areas in Central Yunnan Based on LMDI

作　　者：朱赟 顾世祥 苏沛兰[3] 熊玉江 ZHU Yun;GU Shi-xiang;SU Pei-lan;XIONG Yu-jiang(Yunnan Survey and Design Institute of Water Conservancy and hydropower,Kunming 650021,China;Agricultural Water Conservancy Department,Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan 430010,China;College of Water Resources Science and Engineering,Taiyuan University of Technology,Taiyuan 030024,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省水利水电勘测设计研究院,昆明650021 [2]长江水利委员会长江科学院农业水利研究所,武汉430010 [3]太原理工大学水利科学与工程学院,太原030024

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2020年第12期68-73,共6页Water Saving Irrigation

基　　金：长江科学院中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(CKSF2019174/NY)。

摘　　要：为探讨滇中受水区农业用水量变化的主要影响因素,加强区域粮食生产安全与水资源的可持续利用。基于kaya恒等式,采用对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI)建立了农业用水恒等式,将农业用水量影响效应划分为粮食作物种植面积效应、高耗水作物种植比例效应、综合灌溉定额效应和农业人口效应,并将滇中受水区划分为6个受水片区,对其2008-2018年总体及逐年的农业用水量变化分别进行了因素分解与计算分析。滇中受水区及各受水片区农业用水量变化呈下降趋势,促进其变化趋势的正向效应即主要因素是高耗水作物种植比例与综合灌溉定额。可以通过合理规划种植结构来调整高耗水作物种植比例及综合灌溉定额,进而加强滇中受水区农业水资源的可持续利用。In order to explore the main influencing factors of agricultural water consumption change in Central Yunnan Province,strengthen the regional food production security and sustainable utilization of water resources,based on Kaya identity,this paper established an agricultural water use identity by using logarithmic mean Divisia index method(LMDI).The agricultural water consumption effect was divided into six water receiving areas,including grain crop planting area effect,high water consumption crop planting proportion effect,comprehensive irrigation quota effect and agricultural population effect.The change of agricultural water consumption was analyzed by factor decomposition and calculation.The agricultural water consumption in the water receiving area and each receiving area in Central Yunnan Province showed a downward trend.The positive effect of promoting the change trend was the planting proportion of high water consuming crops and comprehensive irrigation quota.The proportion of high water consumption crops and comprehensive irrigation quota can be adjusted by reasonable planning of planting structure,so as to strengthen the sustainable utilization of agricultural water resources in the water receiving area of central Yunnan.

关 键 词：kaya恒等式 对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI) 农业用水量 影响因素 滇中受水区 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源] S277.7[农业科学—农业水土工程]