我国基本医疗保险财政支出规模预测研究  

Estimation of Financial Expenditure Scale of Basic Medical Insurance in China

作　　者：席晓宇[1] 裴佩 张婧[1] 黄蓉 XI Xiao-yu;PEI Pei;ZHANG Jing(The Research Center of National Drug Policy&Ecosystem,China Pharmaceutical University,Nanjing,Jiangsu,211198,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]中国药科大学国家药物政策与医药产业经济研究中心,江苏南京211198

出　　处：《中国医院管理》2020年第12期9-13,共5页Chinese Hospital Management

基　　金：江苏高校哲学社会科学研究基金项目(2017SJB0053);中国药科大学“双一流”学科创新团队建设项目(CPU2018GY39)。

摘　　要：目的测算我国基本医疗保险政府(包括中央与地方)整体的支出规模,为我国基本医疗保险财政支出可持续性提供考量。方法在各省份参保人口数预测的基础上,依据人均财政补贴水平测算年内基本医疗保险的前期补贴;通过测算方法展开测算年基本医疗保险基金收入和支出预测,进而测算医保基金出现亏空时的后期补贴;二者之和为我国基本医疗保险整体财政支出规模。结果得到测算年内基本医疗保险的整体财政支出规模,发现总体支出规模呈现逐年上升趋势,相较于东部、西部,中部省份的总体支出规模相对较高。结论建议在规模预测的基础上,进一步分析我国基本医疗保险财政支出可持续性,以深入探究我国基本医疗保险服务稳定供给问题。Objective To estimate the total expenditure scale of basic medical insurance government(including central and local governments)in China,and to provide references for the sustainability of financial expenditure of basic medical insurance in China.Methods Based on the prediction of the insured population in each province,the pre-subsidy of basic medical insurance was calculated according to the level of per capita financial subsidy.Through the actuarial method,the basic medical insurance fund income and expenditure forecast,and then the medical insurance fund deficit in the post-subsidy were calculated.The sum of the two was the total expenditure scale of basic medical insurance in China.Results The total expenditure scale of basic medical insurance in the year was estimated,and the total expenditure scale showed an upward trend year by year,which was relatively higher than that of the eastern,western and central provinces.Conclusion On the basis of scale forecast,it is suggested to further analyze the sustainability of financial expenditure of basic medical insurance in China,in order to explore the stable supply of basic medical insurance services in China.

关 键 词：基本医疗保险 财政支出规模 前期补贴 后期补贴 

分 类 号：R197.1[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]