中国税制结构促进经济增长的要素驱动机制研究——基于LT-TVP-VAR模型的高维运算应用  

Research on the Factor Driven Mechanism of China's Taxation Structure Promoting Economic Growth:High-dimensional Computing Application Based on LT-TVP-VAR Model

作　　者：金春雨[1,2] 董雪 JIN Chun-yu;DONG Xue(Quantitative Research Center of Economy,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China;Business College,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012 [2]吉林大学商学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2020年第12期93-102,共10页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大专项“适应新时代社会主要矛盾变迁着眼构建现代化经济体系的深化供给侧结构性改革研究”(18VSJ018)。

摘　　要：基于带有潜在门限变量的时变系数向量自回归(LT-TVP-VAR)模型,创新性地运用高维计算优势,从供给视角出发实证检验了不同时期中国税制结构对供给要素的时变影响效应,探索税制结构有效促进经济增长的内在动力机制。研究发现:税制结构对物质资本、人力资本及劳动力水平产生了正向影响,对技术进步产生了负向影响;在不同时期,税制结构对物质资本和劳动力水平的作用效果较强,而对人力资本和技术进步的作用效果较弱;税制结构只能引起物质资本、人力资本与技术进步的短期波动,并未产生长期作用,而对劳动力水平在短期和长期内均产生一定的作用效果。研究结果为政府相关部门合理优化税制结构提供经验依据。Based on the time-varying coefficient vector autoregressive model with potential threshold variables(LT-TVP-VAR),the advantages of high-dimensional calculation is taken to empirically test the time-varying effect of China's tax structure is explored on supply factors in different periods from the perspective of supply,and explores the internal dynamic mechanism of tax system structure to effectively promote economic growth.It is found that the tax structure has a positive effect on physical capital,human capital,and labor force level,and a negative effect on technological progress.In different periods,the tax structure has a stronger effect on physical capital and labor force level,while it has a weaker effect on human capital and technological progress.The tax structure can only cause a short-term fluctuation of material capital,human capital and technological progress,but not long-term effect,and has a certain effect on the level of labor force in the short-term and long-term.The results of the study provide an effective empirical basis for the relevant government departments to rationally optimize the tax structure.

关 键 词：税制结构 供给要素 经济增长 LT-TVP-VAR模型 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]