农民工参加城镇职工基本养老保险对该基金影响研究——以陕西省为例  

Study on the Impact of Migrant Workers'Participation upon the Fund Balance of Basic Endowment Insurance for Urban Workers Based on the Investigation in Shaanxi Province

作　　者：胡芳肖[1] 贾冰鑫 田若楠 李粉粉 HU Fang-xiao;JIA Bing-xin;TIAN Ruo-nan;LI Fen-fen(Xi’an Jiaotong University,School of Public Policy and Administration,Xi’an 710049,China)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2020年第12期103-114,共12页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“新型城镇化进程中农民工养老保险制度并轨问题研究”(16XSH009)。

摘　　要：农民工为中国的经济发展做出了巨大的贡献,其合法权益理应得到有效的保障。尽管国家在政策上允许和鼓励农民工参加城镇职工基本养老保险,但由于受农民工收入水平低等主客观因素的影响,农民工参加城镇职工基本养老保险参保率仍然较低。农民工参加城镇职工基本养老保险制度对现行制度收支平衡会产生怎样的影响?如果降低农民工参加城镇职工基本养老保险的缴费参数是否会加剧其基金的支付压力?理论界对这些问题没有给出确切的答案。基于人口预测模型及基金收支模型,在合理假设的基础上,以陕西省为例测算了2018—2035年五种不同农民工参保方案对城镇职工基本养老保险基金收支平衡的影响,得出农民工参加城镇职工基本养老保险制度有利于缓解其基金支付压力,农民工参加城镇职工基本养老保险的缴费参数具有一定的改善空间的结论,提出完善农民工参加城镇职工基本养老保险政策,进一步增强城镇职工基本养老保险基金的可持续性,鼓励农民工参加城镇职工基本养老保险,加大劳动纠察力度等对策建议。Migrant workers have made great contributions to China's economic development,and their legitimate rights and interests should be effectively protected.However,despite national policies encourage migrant workers to participate in basic endowment insurance for urban workers,due to subjective and objective factors such as low income levels,the participation rate of migrant workers in urban employees'basic endowment insurance is still low.How will migrant workers'participation in the basic endowment insurance for urban workers affect the operation of the current system?If the parameters of migrant workers'participation in the basic endowment insurance for urban wokers are reduced,will it increase the pressure on the funds?The theoretical circle has not given exact answers to these questions.Based on the population prediction model and the fund income and expenditure model,Shaanxi province is taken as an example to predict the impact of five different insurance schemes for migrant workers on the fund from 2018 to 2035 on the basis of reasonable assumptions.And concluding that migrant workers'participation in the basic endowment insurance for urban workers is helpful to alleviate the imbalance in fund,and the parameters of migrant workers'could improve.Based on the above conclusions,some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward,such as improving the policy of migrant workers'participation in the basic pension insurance,further enhancing the sustainability of the basic pension fund,encouraging migrant workers to participate in the basic pension insurance for urban workers,and strengthening labor correction.

关 键 词：农民工 城镇职工基本养老保险 基金收支平衡 精算模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]