基于DSC模型的黄河入海流路稳定评价指标体系及其应用  

Establishment and Application of a DSC-Based Model for Stability Evaluation of the Yellow River(Huanghe)Deltaic Course

作　　者：王开荣[1] 毕乃双[2] 杜小康 凡姚申 谢卫明 于守兵[1] WANG Kai-Rong;BI Nai-Shuang;DU Xiao-Kang;FAN Yao-Shen;XIE Wei-Ming;YU Shou-Bing(Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,Yellow River Conservancy Commission, Zhengzhou 450003, China;College of Marine Geoscience, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China;State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China)

机构地区：[1]黄河水利科学研究院水利部黄河泥沙重点实验室,河南郑州450003 [2]中国海洋大学海洋地球科学学院,山东青岛266100 [3]华东师范大学河口海岸国家重点实验室,上海200062

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第2期83-93,共11页Periodical of Ocean University of China

基　　金：国家重点研究发展计划项目(2017YFC0405502)资助。

摘　　要：历史上的黄河入海流路具有“十年一改道”的演变特征,其流路稳定问题一直是黄河河口综合治理研究和实践进程中的热点、难点和焦点问题。本文基于对黄河入海流路失稳驱动因子的分析,以黄河入海流路失稳驱动力响应模型作为构建流路稳定评价指标体系的理论依据,以DSC模型(DrivingForce-State-Control,驱动力-状态-控制模型)作为描述框架模型,通过对15个要素、83个具体指标因子的筛选、调整和优化,分别构建了具有不同稳定目标特征值的基本判别指标体系和综合判别指标体系。利用两种判别指标体系对现状黄河入海流路的稳定状态进行了计算判断,结果表明:现状西河口水位(二)站在10000 m^3/s流量时水位为10.52 m,距离12 m改道标准尚有1.48 m的上涨空间,其流路综合稳定状态评价值为0.259,流路稳定状态良好。The Yellow River(Huanghe)deltaic course has evolved with frequent avulsion in history.In this way,river course stability has always been a wide-concerned issue and difficulty in the studies on the management of the Yellow River mouth.This paper analyzed the primary controlling factors for the stability of the Yellow River deltaic course and established an identification index system with 83 indexes of 15 factors based on a DSC(DrivingForce-State-Control)model.A model for stability evaluation of the deltaic course was established through extracting 5 indexes from the identification index system and determining the stability target eigen values of the indexes.The current stability states of the Yellow River deltaic course were assessed by the evaluation model.The results showed that the equivalent water level was 10.52 m at Xihekou hydrological stations when the water discharge reached 10000 m^3/s.This indicated that there was 1.48 m upside potential before the water level reached the critical value(12 m)that triggered the avulsion of the deltaic course.The state of comprehensive stability with a value of 0.259 indicated that the Yellow River deltaic course was stable at present.

关 键 词：稳定评价 指标体系 DSC模型 入海流路 黄河 

分 类 号：P736.4[天文地球—海洋地质]