小型蒸发器缺失观测值插补计算模型研究  

Research on Interpolation Calculation Model of Missing Observation Value of Small Evaporator

作　　者：尹航[1] 梁文涛[1] 王文君[1] 雷冠军[2] 吴英杰[1] 全强[1] YIN Hang;LIANG Wen-tao;WANG Wen-jun;LEI Guan-jun;WU Ying-jie;QUAN Qiang(Institute of Water Resources for Pastoral Area,Huhhot 010020,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]水利部牧区水利科学研究所,内蒙古呼和浩特010020 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2020年第12期6-10,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：内蒙古自治区科技计划重点项目(201802123);内蒙古自治区科技计划重点项目(201802123);内蒙古自治区自然基金(2017BS0512)。

摘　　要：为了解决小型蒸发器观测值缺失的问题,分析了小型蒸发器和E-601B型蒸发器观测值折算系数法的不足,采用回归分析法计算了小型蒸发器观测值,基于成因分析法选用相应月份合适的气象因子,在相关性分析的基础上采用多元回归分析法、逐步回归分析法和门限回归分析法进行计算,采用排序评分法选定出最佳的回归分析多项式,并对2002~2017年的值进行预报,发现选用的最优回归多项式的预报结果与E-601B型蒸发器的观测值的比值在合理的范围内,并进一步扩大了比值的区间;预报因子和预报方法相结合能够获得模拟和预报正确率最高的模型,所提方法对小型蒸发器观测值的预报和插补具有较好的指导意义。In order to solve the problem of missing observation value of small evaporator,the shortcomings of the conversion coefficient method for the observed values of small evaporators and E-601 Bevaporators were analyzed.The regression analysis was used to calculate the observed values of small evaporators.Based on the cause analysis method,the appropriate meteorological factors of the corresponding month were selected.On the basis of correlation analysis,multiple regression analysis method,stepwise regression analysis method and threshold regression analysis method were used for calculation.The optimal regression analysis polynomial was selected by using the ranking score method,and the values from 2002 to 2017 were predicted.It shows that the ratio of the prediction result of the optimal regression polynomial and the observation value of the E-601 Bevaporator is in a reasonable range,and the range of the ratio is further expanded.The model with the highest accuracy of simulation and prediction can be obtained by combining the prediction factor with the prediction method.The proposed method has good guiding significance for prediction and interpolation of the observed values of small evaporators.

关 键 词：蒸发量 相关性分析 回归分析法 折算系数 

分 类 号：P426.2+2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]