基于防灾能力的山洪灾害预警指标估算模型及应用  

Research and Application of Estimation Model of Flash Flood Warning Index Based on Disaster Prevention Ability

作　　者：原文林[1] 刘远驰 付磊 高倩雨 YUAN Wen-lin;LIU Yuan-chi;FU Lei;GAO Qian-yu(School of Water Science and Engineering,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Henan Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources YRCC,Zhengzhou 450004,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学水利科学与工程学院,河南郑州450001 [2]黄河水利委员会河南水文水资源局,河南郑州450004 [3]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2020年第12期66-70,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51779229)。

摘　　要：针对流域下垫面条件和河道条件等复杂地貌特征对山洪灾害预警指标确定影响较大的问题,以多种分布函数拟合极端降水序列,并考虑土壤产流能力、河道槽蓄水量等因素,通过模糊综合评价法量化小流域内防灾对象的防灾能力,提出基于防灾对象防灾能力的山洪灾害预警指标估算模型。选用罗敷堡小流域源头村二组作为防灾对象,利用该模型确定不同土壤湿度下各预警时段的预警指标范围;并将该模型结果、水位流量反推法结果分别与时段特征雨量进行对比检验,结果表明该模型所求山洪灾害预警指标范围合理可靠,可用于山洪灾害预警预报。Aiming at the problem that the complex geomorphological features such as the underlying conditions of the river basin and the conditions of the river channel have a significant influence on the determination of the flash flood disaster warning indicators,this paper uses a variety of distribution functions to fit extreme precipitation sequences,and considers the factors of soil runoff capacity and water storage capacity of the river channel,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to quantify the disaster prevention ability of the disaster prevention objects in the small watershed.And then an estimation model of the flash flood warning index is proposed based on the disaster prevention ability of the disaster prevention objects.The second group of Yuantou village in Luofubao basin is selected as the disaster prevention object,and the model is used to determine the range of early warning indicators for different early warning periods under different soil humidity.The results of the model and the inverse method of water level and discharge are compared with the characteristic rainfall of the time interval.It shows that the model reasonably estimates the range of flash flood warning indicators,and can be used for flash flood warning forecasting.

关 键 词：山洪灾害 预警指标 极端降水 防灾能力 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]