基于FBWM-EWM-LDM组合模型的大坝风险识别方法  

Dam Risk Identification Method Based on FBWM-EWM-LDM Combination Model

作　　者：张瑜潇 杨杰[1,2] 宋锦焘 ZHANG Yu-xiao;YANG Jie;SONG Jin-tao(Faulty of Water Resources and Hydro-electric Engineering,Xi’an University of Technology,Xi’an 710048,China;State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China,Xi’an University of Technology,Xi’an 710048,China)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学水利水电学院,陕西西安710048 [2]西安理工大学省部共建西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室,陕西西安710048

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2020年第12期79-82,15,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：陕西省水利科技计划项目(2018SLKJ-5);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划重点项目(2018JZ5010)。

摘　　要：鉴于大坝风险评估信息具有一定的模糊性和不确定性,提出了一种基于FBWM-EWM-LDM组合模型的大坝风险识别方法,通过模糊最优最劣法和熵权法分别确定大坝风险评价指标体系中各风险项的主、客观权重,同时利用级差最大化法构建非线性规划问题求得最佳组合权重,进而确定风险排序以识别工程中的主要风险。实例应用结果表明,模型识别结果与工程实际情况相吻合,验证了模型的合理性与有效性,为大坝风险管理与除险加固决策提供了依据。In view of the fuzziness and uncertainty of dam risk assessment information,a dam risk identification method was proposed based on FBWM-EWM-LDM combination model.The subjective and objective weight of each index in the dam risk assessment index system was determined by fuzzy best-worst method and entropy weight method,respectively.A nonlinear programming problem by the level difference maximization method was established to find the optimal combination weights.Then,the main risk in engineering was identified by ranking risks.The application results show that the rationality and validity of the model is verified by comparing the risk identification results with the actual situation of the project.The model provides basis for the dam risk management and reinforcement decision.

关 键 词：大坝风险识别 模糊最优最劣法 熵权法 级差最大化法 

分 类 号：TV698[水利工程—水利水电工程]