双边条约对中国对外直接投资的影响机制研究——基于“一带一路”沿线国家的面板分位数实证分析  

Influence Mechanism of Bilateral Treaties on China’s OFDI——An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Quantile Regression of the Countries along “the Belt and Road”

作　　者：袁保生 王林彬[2] 邓峰[1] YUAN Baosheng;WANG Linbin;DENG Feng(School of Economics and Management,Xinjiang University,Urumuqi Xinjiang 830046;Law School,Xinjiang University,Urumuqi Xinjiang 830046)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学经济与管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [2]新疆大学法学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《国际商务（对外经济贸易大学学报）》2020年第6期62-77,共16页INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“丝绸之路经济带框架下中国与中亚投资便利化及投资保护法律机制研究”(15BFX194);新疆大学经济与管理学院“丝路”创新基金项目(JGSL17001)。

摘　　要：通过构建双边条约对中国对外直接投资影响的理论框架,利用2003~2018年中国与"一带一路"沿线42个国家签订的1 712份双边条约,从时间、空间和条约异质性等角度进行实证检验。研究表明:双边条约对中国对外直接投资的促进作用随投资规模增加呈倒U型特征,对出口贸易的"替代"效应随投资规模增加而下降。从区域来看,双边条约显著促进了中国对"丝绸之路经济带"国家的对外直接投资;制度质量越低,双边条约对"21世纪海上丝绸之路"国家对外直接投资的影响作用越强。从条约法律效力看,柔性条约对中国对外直接投资的促进作用大于刚性条约,当宏观经济环境恶化时,制度质量越高柔性条约的作用越强,制度质量越低刚性条约的作用越大。从条约内容看,政治条约对中国对外直接投资的促进作用大于商务和文化条约。By constructing a theoretical framework of the influence of bilateral treaties on China’ s OFDI,this paper conducts an empirical test from the perspectives of time,space and treaty heterogeneity by using the 1,712 bilateral treaties signed between China and 42 countries along "the Belt and Road"from 2003 to 2018. The research shows that the promotion effect of bilateral treaties on China’s OFDI is invertedly U-shaped with the increase of investment scale,while the"substitution"effect on export trade decreases with the increase of investment scale. From a regional perspective, bilateral treaties significantly promote China’s OFDI in " the Silk Road Economic Belt"countries,and the lower the system quality,the stronger the influence of bilateral treaties on China’s OFDI in"the 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road". From the perspective of the legal effect of treaties,flexible treaties play a greater role in promoting China’s OFDI than rigid treaties. When the macroeconomic environment deteriorates,the higher the system quality in the countries,the stronger the role of flexible treaties;and the lower system quality in the countries,the greater the role of rigid treaties. From the perspective of treaty content,political treaties have a greater role in promoting China’s OFDI than commercial treaties and cultural treaties.

关 键 词：双边条约 对外直接投资 面板分位数回归 “一带一路” 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济]