中国不同水稻生长环境下ORYZA(v3)模型参数全局敏感性分析  

Global sensitivity analysis for ORYZA(v3)model under different rice growing environments in China

作　　者：谭君位 崔远来[2] 汪文超[3] Tan Junwei;Cui Yuanlai;Wang Wenchao(College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;Changjiang Institute of Survey,Planning,Design and Research,Wuhan 430010,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学水利与土木工程学院,北京100083 [2]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072 [3]长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司,武汉430010

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2020年第20期153-163,共11页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51909004、51579184)。

摘　　要：中国水稻种植分布广、气候跨度大,水稻生长环境差异较大。ORYZA(v3)模型被广泛用于水稻生长模拟,但不同环境下该模型参数敏感性的时空特征尚不清楚。该研究选取了位于中国16个水稻种植亚区的18个典型站点,分别采用EFAST(Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test)方法对模型中16个作物参数进行30 a(1986-2015年)全局敏感性分析,分析了参数敏感性与气象因子的相关性。结果表明,模型参数敏感性在不同生育阶段、不同稻作制度、以及不同站点之间均存在较大的差异,尤其在高海拔或具有特殊气候类型的地区的参数敏感性明显异于其他地区;模型中叶面积相对生长速率最大值(RGRLMX)、颖花生长系数(SPGF)和最大单粒质量(WGRMX)的敏感性受环境的影响最大;各参数的敏感性与日均最低气温、日均最高气温、积温具有显著相关性,但由于海拔、纬度等因素的综合影响,模型参数敏感性在空间上不随纬度或海拔的变化呈现单一的变化趋势;RGRLMX在大理、牡丹江等站点出现单参数极度敏感的现象,揭示了模型的结构可能存在一定缺陷,在容易受低温冷害影响的地区应用时具有一定的局限性。Rice is widely cultivated over a large climate spanin China,and thereby its growing environments vary greatly.Two main systems of rice cropping arethe double-season rice(early rice and late rice)and single-season rice(middle rice).In Norther China,only single-seasonrice is cultivated,whereas,inSouthern China,both can be cultivated due to the moderate climate.In different cultivars and environments,the ORYZA(v3)model has been widely used for rice growing simulation,while the model has been calibrated and validated in the world.The ORYZA(v3)model is the latest version updated from the ORYZA2000,by integrating new modules and routines to quantify daily dynamics of soil temperature,carbon,nitrogen,and environmental stresses.This model has been significantly improved with enhanced capability to simulate rice growth,development,and yield formation under non-stressed,water stressed,and nitrogen stressed conditions.Many studies have been conducted for the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of parameters in the ORYZA model series.However,the temporal and spatial characteristics of parameter sensitivities in the model are still unclear.In this study,18 typical sites were selected from 16 rice cultivation sub-regions in China,and a global sensitivity analysis for each site was conducted for 16 crop parameters in the ORYZA(v3)model over 30 years(1986-2015)using the Extended FAST method.Theoutput variables were set as the leaf area index(LAI),dry weight of stems(WST),total aboveground dry matter(WAGT),and dry weight of storage organs(WSO)at four development stages(the basic vegetative,photoperiod-sensitive,the panicle-formation,and grain-filling phase).The 30-year means and standard deviations of total sensitivity indices and interaction indices of each model parameters were calculated for the output variables at different growing stages under different environments.The correlations between parameter sensitivities and meteorological factors were analyzedto explore the impacts factors of model parameter sensitivities.The res

关 键 词：模型 敏感性分析 时空特征 相关性 多环境 稻作制度 

分 类 号：S271[农业科学—农业水土工程]