用故障树分析法估计引信弹道炸概率  

Fuze Ballistic Burst Estimation by Fault Tree Analysis

作　　者：霍丽宁 王雨时[1] HUO Lining;WANG Yushi(School of Mechanical Engineering,Nanjing University of Science and Technology,Nanjing 210094,China)

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学机械工程学院,江苏南京210094

出　　处：《探测与控制学报》2020年第6期13-20,共8页Journal of Detection & Control

摘　　要：针对目前引信弹道炸分析还不够全面的问题,提出了应用故障树分析法来估计引信弹道炸概率。从引信发火原理分析,将引信弹道炸故障分为原发性失效与继发性失效,即引信爆炸序列中敏感爆炸元件的自发火和继发性发火。引信弹道炸故障树相关底事件及其概率数值与国家军用标准中的故障树底事件及其概率数值保持一致。研究结果表明,引信弹道炸在工程上不可能完全避免,属于小概率事件并且遵循小概率事件原理,其概率数值范围一般为10-5~10-4。In view of the frequent occurrence of fuze ballistic burst in recent years,the fault tree analysis(FTA)was proposed to estimate the probability of fuze ballistic burst.Based on the analysis of principle of fuze firing,the fuze ballistic burst was divided into primary failure and secondary failure,which was the self-igniting and secondary ignition of sensitive explosive elements in the fuze explosion train.The relevant bottom events and their probability values of fuze ballistic burst fault tree were consistent with these of national military ground.The results showed that the ballistic burst of fuze could not be completely avoided in engineering.It belonged to a rare-event and follows the principle of rare-event.The probability range of fuze ballistic burst was generally 10-5~10-4.

关 键 词：引信 早炸 弹道炸 故障树分析法 小概率事件 

分 类 号：TJ430.1[兵器科学与技术—火炮、自动武器与弹药工程]