改革开放与中国增长奇 迹:效应评估、贡献测算与机理研究  

Reform and Opening-up Policies and China’s Growth Miracle:The Effect Evaluation,Contribution Measurement and Mechanism Analysis

作　　者：陈太明[1] Chen Taiming(School of Economics,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学经济学院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《当代经济管理》2020年第12期1-7,共7页Contemporary Economic Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71403044);国家社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDA011);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71273043);辽宁省高等学校创新人才支持计划项目(WR2018019)。

摘　　要：改革开放40年来,中国经济创造了举世公认的经济增长奇迹。文章基于20世纪70年代末中国实施改革开放的准自然实验,首次使用双重差分法实证研究改革开放的经济增长效应、测算改革开放对增长奇迹的贡献份额,并深入挖掘改革开放影响经济增长的作用机制。基于跨国面板数据模型的实证研究发现:改革开放的增长效应使得中国1979年以来的年均经济增长率提高了5个百分点,1979年前后经济增长率总体变化中的96%以上是由改革开放贡献的,十分可观。改革开放的增长效应主要是通过固定资本形成总额增加和产业结构优化升级渠道传导的,人力资本的作用不显著,政府规模起反作用。上述结论意味着,进一步深化改革开放进程中,在继续加快推进经济增长方式转变和促进产业结构优化升级的同时,应该更加重视教育投资及软环境建设,并且遏制政府规模不断扩张的强劲趋势。Since the late 1970s when the reform and opening up policies began,growth miracle has appeared in China.Based on the differences-in-differences method,the paper examines the net effect of the policies on economic growth,measures the relative contribution of the policies to China s growth miracle,and finds their mechanism on economic growth.The paper finds that the reform and opening up have accelerated the economic growth rate by an average 5 percentage points every year,which contributes to over 96 percent of total economic growth rate change around 1979.The mechanism to accelerate China s economic growth of economic reforms and opening up policies is physical capital increase and industrial structural adjustment,not human capital,and the government size reduces its effect.The paper suggests in the process of deepening reform and opening up,the government should not only continue to convert economic growth mode and update industrial structure,but also attach importance to accelerate education investment and decreasing government size.

关 键 词：改革开放 经济增长 作用机制 双重差分 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F224