掘进工作面突出危险性预测及危险区可视化研究  

Research on outburst risk prediction and visualization of dangerous zone in driving work face

作　　者：李忠辉[1,2,3] 马云波 郑安琪 何顺 王枫植 张昕[1,3] LI Zhonghui;MA Yunbo;ZHENG Anqi;HE Shun;WANG Fengzhi;ZHANG Xin(National Engineering Research Center for Coal Gas Control,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou Jiangsu 221116,China;Key Laboratory of Gas and Fire Control for Coal Mines of Ministry of Education,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou Jiangsu 221116,China;School of Safety Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou Jiangsu 221116,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学煤矿瓦斯治理国家工程研究中心,江苏徐州221116 [2]中国矿业大学煤矿瓦斯与火灾防治教育部重点实验室,江苏徐州221116 [3]中国矿业大学安全工程学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2020年第11期53-59,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目资助(51674254);山东省重大科技创新工程项目(2019JZZY020505)。

摘　　要：为提高煤巷掘进工作面煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测的准确性,提升危险区域的精准管理水平,首先,建立掘进面煤与瓦斯突出优化灰色预测模型,并利用山西武甲煤矿1101和1102轨道掘进工作面测试数据进行模型验证,计算得到2个工作面突出危险预测指标平均相对误差分别为2.46%和1.2%;然后,建立煤与瓦斯突出模糊物元预警模型,设置"无、轻、中、重"4个预警级别;最后,利用3D MAX软件建立煤巷掘进突出危险可视化三维模型,实现了预测结果的可视化显示。研究表明:优化后的灰色预测模型提高了煤与瓦斯突出预测的准确率,可视化三维模型可直观判断掘进工作面前方煤层突出危险性。In order to improve prediction accuracy of coal and gas outburst risk in driving work face,and improve precise management of dangerous areas,firstly,an optimized grey prediction model of coal and gas outburst was constructed and verified by tested data of 1101 and 1102 track driving work faces of Wujia coal mine.Secondly,average relative error of their outburst risk prediction indexes were calculated to be2.46%and 1.2%respectively.Then,fuzzy matter-element early warning model for coal and gas outburst was established with four warning levels of"none,mild,moderate,and severe".Finally,a threedimensional visualization model for outburst was developed with 3 D MAX software,which realized visual display of risks in driving work face.The results show that the optimized model improves prediction accuracy of coal and gas outburst,and and the visualization model can directly decide outburst risks in front of driving work face.

关 键 词：掘进工作面 煤与瓦斯突出 灰色预测模型 三维模型 可视化 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学]